Name____________________________

(Printed)

Student Number___________________

(Social Security Number)

E-mail___________________________

Table 9.13 in Agresti and Finlay, Statistical Methods for the Social Sciences lists "values for several nations on Birth = crude birth rate (number of births per 1000 population size), Women = women's economic activity (female labor force as percent of male), C = percent women using contraception, Literacy = female adult literacy rate, Life = female life expectancy, HDI = human development index (which has components referring to life expectancy at birth, educational attainment, and income per capita), GNP = gross national product (per capita, in thousands of dollars), News = daily newspaper circulation per 100 people, and TV = number of televisions per 100 people. Data are missing on some variables for some of the nations. Sources: Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1995 and Human Development Report, 1995, Oxford University Press."

The data are available on the course web site or you can copy them from the book, if you have it, or from the attached table.

1. First treat birthrate as the dependent (Y) variable and women's economic activity as the independent variable (X).
2. Construct a plot and attach to this assignment. (Make sure you make Y the independent variable.)
1. What type of correlation or relationship does the plot suggest? In other words, will the slope be positive or negative? ______________________



3. Treating birth rate as the dependent or response variable and economic activity as the independent or explanatory factor, find the prediction equation (the OLS estimates) for these data. ___________________________________________________________

1. Interpret the parameters in substantive terms.
1. _____________________________________________________
   ___________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________________________________

1. What is R²?_____________________
2. Use the equation to find the predicted birth rate for Nigeria (case number 18). That is, substitute Nigeria's value for "economic activity" into the estimated model and obtain the predicted Y. It is: ____________________



3. What is the residual? __________________________



1. Now use GNP as the explanatory or independent variable for birth rate.
1. Construct a plot and attach to this assignment.
2. Does a linear model seem appropriate? ________________________________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________
3. What is the R² between GNP and birth rates?_____________________
4. What is the estimated model?

__________________________________________________________________

1. Finally, regress birth rates on both GNP and the economic activity measure.
1. What is the R²? _____________________________
2. What is the estimated model? ____________________

Birth Women C L Life HDI NP N TV Nation

_____________________________________________

29.0 11 47 73 68 44 1.6 5 7 Algeria

19.5 38 * 88 76 96 4.0 12 22 Argentina

14.1 61 76 93 81 99 16.6 25 48 Australia

21.2 38 66 80 69 81 2.6 5 21 Brazil

13.7 63 * 95 81 99 20.8 23 64 Canada

17.8 81 83 59 70 70 1.3 5 3 China

14.5 50 70 77 77 94 1.6 17 16 Cuba

12.4 77 78 92 78 99 24.2 35 54 Denmark

28.7 12 46 61 65 36 .5 6 12 Egypt

13.0 64 81 93 81 99 24.1 21 41 France

11.0 * 75 92 79 99 19.8 59 56 Germany

27.8 34 43 44 60 35 .3 3 4 India

43.6 29 14 62 67 41 .7 4 7 Iraq

20.4 49 * 91 78 95 13.6 26 27 Israel

10.7 64 64 94 82 99 27.3 59 61 Japan

28.0 55 48 75 73 82 2.5 14 15 Malaysia

26.6 37 53 84 74 86 3.1 13 15 Mexico

43.3 51 6 41 52 42 .2 * * Nigeria

41.8 16 12 48 63 63 .4 2 2 Pakistan

30.4 44 40 68 68 94 .7 5 4 Philippines

12.6 70 * 85 74 99 8.6 * * Russia

33.4 54 50 * 66 70 2.6 4 10 SouthAfrica

11.2 31 * 98 80 93 13.4 8 40 Spain

13.2 60 81 92 79 99 17.4 39 43 UnitedKingdom

15.2 65 74 94 79 99 22.6 25 81 UnitedStates

26.3 82 53 89 67 54 * * * Vietnam

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