We've made some of these points during the semester.

First, George W. Bush's 2000 presidential campaign has stressed the need to keep government from getting too big and expensive. He has repeatedly criticized his opponent, Al Gore, for proposing large increases in government spending. Bush's message is that government should be scaled back. More important, he implies that he will hold the line on spending, perhaps even cut some programs and reduce waste in others. He says again and again "I trust the people. So let's let them have a tax break so that they can decide how they want to spend their money." This position implies that Bush favors reductions in most government programs, except perhaps defense and education. But even here is spending proposals are very modest and certainly far less than Gore's.

The Bush strategy raises the question of where the public stands on these matters. Notice, for example, that Bush's message is couched in vary vague, non-specific terms. Why?

We also noted in class that it is difficult to interpret election outcomes. In particular, they are often not indicators of any ideological shift in the public such as a growth of liberalism or conservatism. That is, there is little evidence that Americans are ideological in the sense that they back specific ideologies.

Given these questions and facts how should candidates frame issues? Are (were) Republicans making any mistakes? To answer take a specific case.

Suppose you received a call from the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee asking if you would like to bid on a research contract. The committee wants to maintain the Republican majority in the House and needs to know what sorts of appeals will resonate with the public. But there is a problem. On the one hand, many members want to scale down government and reduce if not eliminate federal programs. On the other hand, there has been some discussion that voters may not be ready to support serious cuts in these programs. Hence, the committee needs to know where the people's attitudes have been and are like to go in the next couple of years.

In order to win the contract you need to convince the committee that your organization has the skills and experience to collect, present, and interpret opinion data. It also has to have confidence that you can produce an intelligible report in a short span of time. Hence, you may want to work with people who together have a variety of skills. (See below.) But, of course, like many consultants you can work on your own. If you work as a group, everyone stands or falls on the outcome no matter who did what or worked how hard. The committee (and it alone) makes the final decision whether to award you the contract. Moreover, it relies solely on its judgment. Simply submitting a bid does not guarantee you anything.

You can demonstrate your competence by examining existing data from a reliable source. Since the committee wants to know about trends perhaps the best source is the General Social Survey. It's an annual poll conducted by the National Opinion Research Center (NORC) at the University of Chicago.

You can use these surveys to show how attitudes toward various government programs, have changed, if indeed they have changed at all.

• OVERVIEW:
  • You need to find public opinion data.
  • The data should show how the public's opinion about the role in government have changed in the last 30 years.
  • Once you have this information you can make tables or graphs that show trends in opinion over time.
  • This information can be used to support a written report to the committee.
• DATA:
• Go to the General Social Survey web page as indicated in the notes.
• Find the "Trends in GSS Variables" section and then go to those listed under the letter N.
• Use 6 to 8 of the following questions (variables) for your analysis:
• The letters are at the top of the page. Pick N to find the list of variables starting with the letter N, as in "[NATAID] FOREIGN AID."
  • [NATDRUGY] DRUG REHABILITATION -- VERSION Y
  • [NATCITYY] ASSISTANCE TO BIG CITIES -- VERSION Y
  • [NATARMSY] NATIONAL DEFENSE -- VERSION Y
  • [NATAIDY] ASSISTANCE TO OTHER COUNTRIES -- VER Y
  • [NATCITYY] ASSISTANCE TO BIG CITIES -- VERSION Y
  • [NATCRIMY] LAW ENFORCEMENT -- VERISON Y
  • [NATEDUCY] EDUCATION -- VERSION Y
  • [NATENVIY] THE ENVIRONMENT -- VERSION Y
  • [NATFAREY] ASSISTANCE TO THE POOR -- VERSION Y
  • [NATHEALY] HEALTH -- VERSION Y
  • [NATMASS] MASS TRANSPORTATION
  • [NATPARK] PARKS AND RECREATION
  • [NATRACEY] ASSISTANCE TO BLACKS -- VERSION Y
  • [NATROAD] HIGHWAYS AND BRIDGES
  • [NATSOC] SOCIAL SECURITY
  • [NATSPACY] SPACE EXPLORATION -- VERSION Y