Table 1. The President's Budget Proposals Under CBO Assumptions
(Uses CBO December economic and technical assumptions, in billions of dollars)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 7 Year
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baseline deficit\1\.. 172.8 180.7 179.9 192.2 199.9 204.3 221.1 1,350.8
Savings:
Discretionary....... -12.5 -10.4 -18.6 -34.5 -50.9 -73.9 -96.6 -297.4
Mandatory:
Medicare........... -2.6 -5.7 -9.1 -16.6 -22.9 -27.3 -40.1 -124.2
Medicaid........... ....... -2.0 -3.1 -8.2 -10.3 -16.0 -19.4 -59.0
Welfare reform..... -* -4.9 -6.0 -6.4 -6.9 -7.1 -8.4 -39.8
EITC\2\............ -* -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -5.0
Other mandatory.... -4.4 -1.9 -1.5 -3.6 -5.4 -8.1 -26.0 -51.0
---------------------------------------------------------------
Total, mandatory.. -7.0 -15.3 -20.6 -35.6 -46.3 -59.4 -94.9 -279.0
Tax cuts............ 3.3 14.2 16.1 18.5 24.8 19.5 2.1 98.5
Corporate loopholes
and other.......... -1.7 -7.1 -8.7 -9.5 -10.2 -10.4 -11.9 -59.4
---------------------------------------------------------------
Total, policy
proposals.......... -18.0 -18.5 -31.9 -61.2 -82.5 -124.2 -201.2 -537.4
Debt service........ -0.5 -1.6 -3.0 -5.5 -9.2 -14.7 -23.6 -58.1
---------------------------------------------------------------
Total savings........ -18.5 -20.1 -34.9 -66.7 -91.7 -138.9 -224.8 -595.5
Deficit/surplus...... 154.4 160.6 145.0 125.5 108.1 65.4 -3.7 755.3
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*Less than $50 million.
\1\OMB has adjusted CBO's December baseline to remove the directed scorekeeping of
student loan administrative costs and to reflect the pending Supreme Court review of
a lower court decision on accounting for "goodwill".
\2\Includes EITC revenues.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 2. The President's Budget Proposals Under OMB Assumptions--Excluding Effects of
"Fiscal Dividend"
(Uses OMB July economic and technical assumptions, in billions of dollars)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 7 Year
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baseline deficit..... 185.4 196.8 194.5 202.2 208.4 206.5 215.5 1,409.3
Adjustments:
BLS adjustments.... ....... -* -1.0 -3.4 -6.4 -9.5 -13.6 -33.8
Fiscal bonus....... -1.6 -8.6 -17.5 -26.7 -36.4 -46.8 -56.0 -193.6
Subtotal,
adjustments........ -1.6 -8.6 -18.5 -30.0 -42.7 -56.2 -69.6 -227.4
December base........ 183.8 188.1 176.0 172.2 165.6 150.2 145.9 1,181.9
Savings:
Discretionary....... -12.5 -10.4 -18.3 -35.3 -52.8 -77.1 -100.5 -306.9
Mandatory:
Medicare\1\........ -2.6 -5.7 -9.1 -16.6 -22.9 -27.3 -40.1 -124.2
Medicaid\1\........ ....... -2.0 -3.1 -8.2 -10.3 -16.0 -19.4 -59.0
Welfare reform..... -0.3 -5.1 -5.7 -6.1 -6.8 -7.1 -8.5 -39.5
EITC\2\............ -0.0 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -6.1
Other mandatory.... -6.8 -0.8 -4.8 -5.1 -7.3 -11.8 -30.5 -67.1
---------------------------------------------------------------
Total, mandatory.. -9.6 -14.5 -23.8 -37.1 -48.4 -63.2 -99.4 -295.9
Tax cuts............ 4.6 13.5 14.5 17.7 22.8 14.8 0.8 88.6
Corporate loopholes
and other.......... -1.9 -6.3 -7.7 -9.1 -9.8 -10.1 -11.7 -56.6
---------------------------------------------------------------
Total, policy
proposals.......... -19.5 -17.7 -35.3 -63.7 -88.2 -135.6 -210.8 -570.9
Debt service........ -0.6 -1.7 -3.2 -5.9 -10.0 -16.2 -25.3 -62.7
---------------------------------------------------------------
Total savings........ -20.1 -19.4 -38.5 -69.6 -98.2 -151.8 -236.1 -633.6
Deficit/surplus...... 163.7 168.8 137.5 102.6 67.5 -1.5 -90.3 548.3
MEMORANDUM:
Deficit/surplus with
February economic
assumptions\3\...... 152.0 148.7 113.3 80.0 50.8 -9.9 -91.6 443.3
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*Less than $50 million.
\1\Administration estimates have not been completed for Medicaid and Medicare
proposals; therefore, these estimates use CBO December economic and technical
assumptions.
\2\Includes EITC revenues.
\3\Includes preliminary estimate based on the Administration's February economic
assumptions and July technical assumptions.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 3. Application of the "Fiscal Dividend" to the President's Budget Proposals
(In billions of dollars)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Deficit or surplus assuming tax cuts expire on December 31, 2000:
CBO December economics...... -154.4 -160.6 -145.0 -125.5 -108.1 -65.4 3.7
OMB February economics...... -152.0 -148.7 -113.3 -80.0 -50.8 9.9 91.6
-------------------------------------------------------
Difference................. 2.4 11.9 31.8 45.4 57.3 75.3 87.9
Trigger impact on OMB
estimates:
Step 1--Continue tax cut.... (20.0) -9.3 -23.7
Step 2--Increase
discretionary spending..... (20.0) -20.0 -20.0
Step 3: Not applicable
Further discretionary
increases................. (5.8) -5.8 -5.8
Reserved for additional tax
cuts...................... (5.8) (-5.8) (-5.8)
Reserved for deficit
reduction................. (5.8) 0.0 0.0
Debt service............... ....... -0.8 -2.7
-------------------------------------------------------
Total trigger................ (57.3) -35.9 -52.1
OMB February deficit or
surplus..................... -152.0 -148.7 -113.3 -80.0 -50.8 -26.0 39.5
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 4. The President's Budget Proposals Under OMB Assumptions--Including Effects of
"Fiscal Dividend"
(Uses OMB July economic and technical assumptions, in billions of dollars)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1996 1997 1998 999 2000 2001 2002 7 Year
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baseline deficit..... 185.4 196.8 194.5 202.2 208.4 206.5 215.5 1,409.3
Adjustments:
BLS adjustments.... ....... -* -1.0 -3.4 -6.4 -9.5 -13.6 -33.8
Fiscal bonus....... -1.6 -8.6 -17.5 -26.7 -36.4 -46.8 -56.0 -193.6
---------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal,
adjustments........ -1.6 -8.6 -18.5 -30.0 -42.7 -56.2 -69.6 -227.4
---------------------------------------------------------------
December base........ 183.8 188.1 176.0 172.2 165.6 150.2 145.9 1,181.9
Savings:
Discretionary....... -12.5 -10.4 -18.3 -35.3 -52.8 -51.3 -74.7 -255.3
Mandatory:
Medicare\1\........ -2.6 -5.7 -9.1 -16.6 -22.9 -27.3 -40.1 -124.2
Medicaid\1\........ ....... -2.0 -3.1 -8.2 -10.3 -16.0 -19.4 -59.0
Welfare reform..... -0.3 -5.1 -5.7 -6.1 -6.8 -7.1 -8.5 -39.5
EITC\2\............ -0.0 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -6.1
Other mandatory.... -6.8 -0.8 -4.8 -5.1 -7.3 -11.8 -30.5 -67.1
---------------------------------------------------------------
Total, mandatory.. -9.6 -14.5 -23.8 -37.1 -48.4 -63.2 -99.4 -295.9
Tax cuts............ 4.6 13.5 14.5 17.7 22.8 24.1 24.5 121.6
Corporate loopholes
and other.......... -1.9 -6.3 -7.7 -9.1 -9.8 -10.1 -11.7 -56.6
---------------------------------------------------------------
Total, policy
proposals.......... -19.5 -17.7 -35.3 -63.7 -88.2 -100.5 -161.4 -486.3
Debt service........ -0.6 -1.7 -3.2 -5.9 -10.0 -15.4 -22.6 -59.3
---------------------------------------------------------------
Total savings........ -20.1 -19.4 -38.5 -69.6 -98.2 -115.9 -184.0 -545.5
Effect of February
economic assumptions -11.7 -20.1 -24.3 -22.6 -16.6 -8.4 -1.4 -105.0
Deficit/surplus with
February economic
assumptions\3\...... 152.0 148.7 113.3 80.0 50.8 26.0 -39.5 531.3
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*Less than $50 million.
\1\Administration estimates have not been completed for Medicaid and Medicare
proposals; therefore, these estimates use CBO December economic and technical
assumptions.
\2\Includes EITC revenues.
\3\Includes preliminary estimate based on the Administration's February economic
assumptions and July technical assumptions.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 5. The President's Budget Under CBO Assumptions
(Uses CBO December economic and technical assumptions, in billions of dollars)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 7 Year
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Outlays:
Discretionary..... 539.0 543.5 537.4 537.6 537.9 531.9 527.4 3,754.8
Mandatory:
Medicare......... 173.9 189.2 203.9 216.7 231.9 250.9 263.5 1,529.9
Medicaid......... 97.2 105.2 115.0 121.5 132.2 140.8 153.2 865.1
Other............ 522.1 554.3 585.7 617.1 649.0 671.5 688.5 4,288.2
----------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal,
mandatory........ 793.2 848.7 904.6 955.2 1,013.0 1,063.2 1,105.2 6,683.2
Net interest...... 243.0 247.4 249.3 248.9 246.1 246.3 246.3 1,727.3
----------------------------------------------------------------
Total outlays...... 1,575.1 1,639.6 1,691.3 1,741.8 1,797.0 1,841.4 1,878.9 12,165.2
Revenues........... 1,420.8 1,479.0 1,546.3 1,616.3 1,688.9 1,776.0 1,882.6 11,409.9
----------------------------------------------------------------
Deficit/surplus..... -154.4 -160.6 -145.0 -125.5 -108.1 -65.4 3.7 -755.3
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 6. The President's Budget Under OMB Assumptions--Excluding Effects of "Fiscal
Dividend"
(Uses OMB July economic and technical assumptions, in billions of dollars)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 7 Year
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Outlays:
Discretionary..... 539.0 543.5 537.4 537.6 537.9 531.9 527.4 3,754.8
Mandatory:
Medicare......... 174.2 188.5 202.7 213.1 228.2 247.3 259.9 1,513.8
Medicaid......... 96.1 102.5 111.3 116.3 126.1 132.8 143.0 828.1
Other............ 524.8 561.3 586.1 612.9 642.9 659.3 673.6 4,260.9
----------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal,
mandatory........ 795.0 852.4 900.1 942.3 997.2 1,039.4 1,076.5 6,602.9
Net interest...... 244.6 249.3 252.2 255.1 254.4 251.0 242.9 1,749.4
----------------------------------------------------------------
Total outlays...... 1,578.6 1,645.2 1,689.7 1,735.0 1,789.5 1,822.4 1,846.8 12,107.1
Revenues........... 1,414.9 1,476.4 1,552.2 1,632.4 1,722.0 1,823.9 1,937.0 11,558.8
----------------------------------------------------------------
Deficit/surplus..... -163.7 -168.8 -137.5 -102.6 -67.5 1.5 90.3 -548.3
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 7. COMPARISON OF ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
(Calendar years)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nominal GDP\1\:
Level, billions of dollars:
1996 Mid-Session Review.... 7,091 7,470 7,879 8,310 8,765 9,245 9,745 10,268
CBO December baseline...... 7,079 7,418 7,788 8,173 8,577 9,002 9,447 9,915
1997 Budget................ 7,078 7,428 7,805 8,203 8,623 9,058 9,523 10,005
Percent change, fourth
quarter over fourth
quarter:
1996 Mid-Session Review.... 4.7 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4
CBO December baseline...... 4.3 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0
1997 Budget................ 4.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1
CPI-U, percent change, fourth
quarter over fourth quarter:
1996 Mid-Session Review..... 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1
CBO December baseline....... 2.9 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0
CBO December adjusted\2\.... 2.9 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9
1997 Budget................. 2.7 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8
Unemployment rate, percent:
1996 Mid-Session Review..... 5.8 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8
CBO December baseline....... 5.6 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
1997 Budget................. 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7
Interest rates, percent:
91-day Treasury bills:
1996 Mid-Session Review.... 5.7 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.4
CBO December baseline...... 5.5 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.2 3.9 3.9 3.9
1997 Budget................ 5.5 4.9 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.0
10-year Treasury notes:
1996 Mid-Session Review.... 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.6
CBO December baseline...... 6.6 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5
1997 Budget................ 6.6 5.6 5.3 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\Assumptions do not reflect NIPA revisions announced on January 19, 1996.
\2\Reflects assumption that January 1997 correction for formula bias will reduce
CPI growth by 0.3 percentage points per year, as incorporated in CBO scoring of the
Administration's January 6, 1996, offer.
Note: This table has been revised to correct typographic errors that were found in
the published version of this document.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Acknowledgement:
I obtained this document from The University of Michigan's Document Center
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