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www.delawareonline.com : The News Journal : LOCAL : Expert: After war, 'chaos' may reign
TODAY IS
Thursday, March 27
,
2003
Expert: After war, 'chaos' may reign CIA consultant tells UD students region may never be a democracy
By SEAN O'SULLIVAN Staff reporter 03/27/2003
A Middle East expert and CIA consultant expressed strong doubts Wednesday about democracy being established in postwar Iraq.
Martha Neff Kessler, 58, who spoke at the University of Delaware, said there may not even be an Iraq after the war because there is a real danger that region could descend into chaos.
"It is quite possible that there will be a breaking apart of Iraq on ethnic and religious lines like Lebanon" or Yugoslavia, she told a class taught by UD journalism professor and former CNN correspondent Ralph Begleiter.
Kessler also gave a public speech as part of the university's "Spies, Lies and Sneaky Guys" lecture series. Kessler was a Middle East analyst for the CIA from 1970 until 2000 and continues to be a consultant to the agency.
Although some predicted the war with Iraq would be over quickly, she said she was not surprised by the Iraqi resistance and guerrilla tactics. Saddam's goal is not necessarily victory, she said, but survival.
The real problem is going to be postwar Iraq. "Reconstruction ... may take considerably longer," she said.
The Bush administration's hope of establishing a democratic Iraq is not realistic in her view. She said Iraq is a diverse and divided nation, with two major religious groups - Sunni and Shiite Muslims - and a large Kurdish population to the north. She said it could take months or even years to re-establish a "normal civilian life" for most Iraqis.
Asked how long it would take to establish a democracy, she answered, "Perhaps never."
"There is a very serious danger that the removal of Saddam Hussein will lead to ... chaos," she said, adding that there are long-simmering tensions among groups in Iraq. "Removal will lead to resumption of old grudges and reseizing of property," she said.
True democracies are a rare thing, said Kessler, and it took the United States decades to evolve into the democracy it is today.
She said "victory" for the United States would not be a free and democratic Iraq. Victory would be protecting the United States from a regime that supports terrorism and has ambitions to be a regional superpower, she said.
Reach Sean O'Sullivan at 324-2777 or at sosullivan@delawareonline.com.
The News Journal/ROBERT CRAIG
Martha Neff Kessler, a 30-year Middle East analyst for the CIA, speaks at a UD journalism class taught by former CNN correspondent Ralph Begleiter. She says she is not surprised by the Iraqi resistance and guerrilla tactics. "I don't think the intelligence community was surprised, nor the Pentagon," Kessler told the class.
S P O N S O R S
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www.delawareonline.com : The News Journal : LOCAL : Expert: After war, 'chaos' may reign
TODAY IS
Thursday, March 27
,
2003
Expert: After war, 'chaos' may reign CIA consultant tells UD students region may never be a democracy
By SEAN O'SULLIVAN Staff reporter 03/27/2003
A Middle East expert and CIA consultant expressed strong doubts Wednesday about democracy being established in postwar Iraq.
Martha Neff Kessler, 58, who spoke at the University of Delaware, said there may not even be an Iraq after the war because there is a real danger that region could descend into chaos.
"It is quite possible that there will be a breaking apart of Iraq on ethnic and religious lines like Lebanon" or Yugoslavia, she told a class taught by UD journalism professor and former CNN correspondent Ralph Begleiter.
Kessler also gave a public speech as part of the university's "Spies, Lies and Sneaky Guys" lecture series. Kessler was a Middle East analyst for the CIA from 1970 until 2000 and continues to be a consultant to the agency.
Although some predicted the war with Iraq would be over quickly, she said she was not surprised by the Iraqi resistance and guerrilla tactics. Saddam's goal is not necessarily victory, she said, but survival.
The real problem is going to be postwar Iraq. "Reconstruction ... may take considerably longer," she said.
The Bush administration's hope of establishing a democratic Iraq is not realistic in her view. She said Iraq is a diverse and divided nation, with two major religious groups - Sunni and Shiite Muslims - and a large Kurdish population to the north. She said it could take months or even years to re-establish a "normal civilian life" for most Iraqis.
Asked how long it would take to establish a democracy, she answered, "Perhaps never."
"There is a very serious danger that the removal of Saddam Hussein will lead to ... chaos," she said, adding that there are long-simmering tensions among groups in Iraq. "Removal will lead to resumption of old grudges and reseizing of property," she said.
True democracies are a rare thing, said Kessler, and it took the United States decades to evolve into the democracy it is today.
She said "victory" for the United States would not be a free and democratic Iraq. Victory would be protecting the United States from a regime that supports terrorism and has ambitions to be a regional superpower, she said.
Reach Sean O'Sullivan at 324-2777 or at sosullivan@delawareonline.com.
The News Journal/ROBERT CRAIG
Martha Neff Kessler, a 30-year Middle East analyst for the CIA, speaks at a UD journalism class taught by former CNN correspondent Ralph Begleiter. She says she is not surprised by the Iraqi resistance and guerrilla tactics. "I don't think the intelligence community was surprised, nor the Pentagon," Kessler told the class.
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