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U.S. must address Middle East issues, expert says
5:03 p.m., May 18, 2006--The structural failure of the Arab states and the growing presence of China in the Middle East are two trends that will have a deep impact on the security of the United States, Kenneth Pollack, former CIA and National Security Council analyst on the Middle East, said at UD Wednesday evening, May 17. “The Arab states are experiencing very widespread structural problems with their economies, their political systems, their educational systems, their legal systems, and pretty much every other aspect of life in the Arab world,” he said. “These problems are creating widespread difficulties, animosities and anxieties throughout Arab society.” In his presentation, “Middle East: Reshaping the Strategic Landscape,” Pollack said the demographic explosion in the Middle East, coupled with the political and educational stagnation, has created enormous problems. Pollack said schools in countries such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia discourage their students from becoming entrepreneurs or to be independent and thus students are not able to find employment. “Larger and larger numbers of young men are just unable or unequipped to get jobs,” he said. “Their societies aren't generating jobs very quickly. And even though their educational systems are producing larger and larger numbers of graduates, in many cases those educational systems are failing to provide their graduates with the skills they would need to get jobs in the global economy.” Pollack, director of research at the Saban Center for Middle East Studies at the Brookings Institution, said these problems produce anger and frustration and that anger and frustration have been compounded by political systems that are completely detached from the people. “They are run by autocrats, many of whom have been in power for very long periods of time, some are run by bureaucrats who have been in power for very long periods of time who are simply unresponsive to the needs of the people,” he said. “And no matter how much the people clamor, no matter how angry or how frustrated they may get, the autocrats seem to have little desire or little willingness to do anything about that. And this, too, creates anger and frustration all across the board.” Pollack said the United States did not realize these problems would affect it until 9/11. Many young people turn to terrorism, Pollack said, because their government will not listen to them and they do not like the United States supporting their government. Because many youth feel they have no recourse, they become perfect targets for terrorist recruitment groups, he said. Hezbollah, a terrorist organization, targets the younger sons of poor Lebanese families by promising their family will be taken care of after they become suicide bombers, Pollack said, and al-Qaeda targets the educated middle-class sons who are frustrated with the lack of employment opportunities.
“All of that leaves me very concerned of the future stability of these different states and the developed potential toward the United States to deal with terrorism in the region,” he said. “What it suggests to me is that we're not going to be able to get out of these problems unless we're willing to actually engage this larger problem of frustration and anger in the Arab world.” Pollack said China's growing influence in the Middle East also is affecting U.S. relations in the region. “For 40 years, the United States has been the only country that had its hand on the oil spigot in the Middle East,” he said. “All of the rest of the world has relied on the United States to make sure that there is a free flow of relatively inexpensive oil from the Middle East to fuel all of our economies. Given China's aspirations for greater power status, given its increasing competitiveness on energy and energy from the Middle East, it is only natural that the Chinese start to be a bit more concerned about the U.S., and the U.S. alone having a hand on the oil spigot in the Middle East.” Pollack said China is looking to obtain oil and gas supplies for its long-term benefit. China also is willing and has sold weaponry to Arab states, such as missiles to Iran. Pollack said China also uses its political influence in the United Nations Security Council to prevent sanctions on Arab states in order to keep obtaining oil. “I think it's clear that the Chinese have tried to demonstrate that their view matters in the Middle East,” he said. “I think that's also part of what they're offering to the Iranians and I think they're trying to make clear, to the United States in particular, that China now cares deeply about the Middle East and has the ability to make life difficult for the United States in the Middle East if we're not willing to take into account their needs and their interests.” Pollack said China has shown it is not unconcerned with domestic politics in the Middle East, which makes them an attractive trade partner. The United States is going to have to take action and begin the political, economic and cultural reforms that the Middle East needs, Pollack said, and the United States also needs to convince China that its needs are similar to the United States and that it is in the interest of both countries to work together. “What's I've suggested to you is that there are real forces of instability out there, there are real problems in the Middle East, which underlie, and in many cases, are the interstices behind the obvious problems of Iraq in turmoil and Iran in its efforts to acquire nuclear weapon capability,” he said. “But I hope I've also suggested to you that the problems are not insoluble and that if you had people willing to work with partners in Europe and partners in China that it may be possible to steer clear of these different problems and hopefully achieve a more stable, more prosperous and more peaceful Middle East than we've had in the last 50 years.” Pollack's lecture is part of a series of Global Agenda lectures entitled "Hidden Dangers: Global Challenges Below the Radar," which are free and open to the public. Article by Julia Parmley, AS '07
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