Amy Sebring: Welcome to the Virtual Forum! We are having a group discussion today on the theme "Will the Results of the National Election Have Any Impact on Disaster Policies?." Amy Sebring: The background page is posted at http://www.emforum.org/vforum/001108.htm with the discussion questions, so please keep it handy. Amy Sebring: (Just click on the link and keep in your browser window.) Amy Sebring: Well, is this a cliffhanger or what?! I fully expected to get up this morning and be able to put this together knowing what the outcome was ... Amy Sebring: however, it appears that there will be a recount in Florida, and it may take a few days before we even know who our next President will be for certain. Amy Sebring: This has been an election where every vote has counted, and I wonder how many folks down in Florida who did not vote, are kicking themselves today! Amy Sebring: Regarding the Congressional races, it appears that the Republicans will have the barest of majorities. So an overall conclusion may be that with the power so evenly divided between the parties, and no clear mandate from the electorate for either side ... Amy Sebring: we will either see a continuation of "gridlock" or the parties will need to understand that they must work together in a more bipartisan way. The style of leadership of the next President could perhaps make a big difference. Amy Sebring: Our concern today is what will be the impact of all of this on disaster policy over the next term and the future. We may not be able to say anything definitive today, but we would like to hear from you as to what you think. Amy Sebring: You may notice that Avagene is not with us today. She has been attending the IAEM conference in Washington, and is travelling home today. Amy Sebring: Another election was taking place there for President- elect. I have not heard the results yet. Bob Andrews of Arizona, and Janet Dilling of Florida were the candidates. If anyone has any news on that race, please pop it in. Amy Sebring: Finally, before we get into our discussion, I have posted a link to the latest version I could find of the National Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000, also referred to as the Stafford Act Amendments. Amy Sebring: This was very recently signed into law by President Clinton. We might reasonably expect that this law will have the most significant impact on the national level in the near term, depending on the funding that is provided for it through the budget process. Amy Sebring: As suggested by the title, the law authorizes a pre- disaster mitigation program and establishes a fund to implement it, increases the federal share of post-disaster mitigation, and authorizes use of up to 7% of Section 404 funds for states to use for developing mitigation plans. Amy Sebring: In addition, it permits delegation of the authority to administer the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program to qualified States (those having approved plans). Amy Sebring: It also includes some other provisions for streamlining and other miscellaneous items you can review later. Amy Sebring: Now we will get into our discussion. If you have not done this before, how we handle it is thusly... Amy Sebring: Please look ahead on the background page to the next question. If you have a response, go ahead and prepare it, that is, type it in, but do not hit send until we are ready for it. Amy Sebring: For example, please start preparing any response you may have for Question 1. We will not be using the question marks today. Amy Sebring: Speaking of Question 1, we will need to rephrase it. Although it does not appear to be a done deal, let's for the sake of discussion assume that the Bush lead in Florida holds up. Amy Sebring: So let's rephrase Question 1, Assuming the Bush leads holds up in Florida, what is likely to be his attitude toward the role of the federal government in all disaster phases vs. the state, local, and NGO roles? Amy Sebring: If you would like to respond to this, or any of the other discussion questions from the perspective that Gore will ultimately prevail, by all means feel free to do so. Amy Sebring: Your thoughts now please on Question 1? Amy Sebring: Don't wait to be called on, just enter them when you are ready. John Anderson: attitude toward the role of the federal government in all disaster phases vs. the state, local, and NGO roles? Bush - more state control Rick Tobin: There should be continuity. At the IAEM conference the buzz was that Witt would stay the head of FEMA, which is a start. ray pena: The new President will understand the feds have a role to play in all four phases. He needs to decide how the role manifests itself. I hope he decides with the best info and advice he can find. Amy Sebring: We would like to hear from as many of you as possible. Keith Featherstone: Mitigation-Project impact goes away. Amy Sebring: Even though I am from Texas, I have no particular insight here, except that "home rule" for municipalities is very strong and state government is relatively weak. Amy Sebring: The state has relied on assistance from FEMA in recent years for support for wildfire fighting. However, Governor Bush vetoed a bill a few years ago that would have created ... Amy Sebring: a state disaster fund based on a small surcharge on electric bills as an interim measure, due to a technicality mostly, but did not strongly support any alternative plan. Amy Sebring: I also note that Governor Bush has in other areas advocated more reliance on faith-based groups to provide services and wonder if this would be reflected in his attitude toward post- disaster assistance. In particular, the Salvation Army has had an active role here in Texas. Cam King: Keith - why do you think that? Amy Sebring: Other thoughts re Bush? (We have the Witt item down the line at Question 4.) Keith Featherstone: General GOP rules of Limited Government Cam King: Keith could you expand for us Canadians Rick Tobin: It would be interesting for the ARC to have a little different throne in the world of care and shelter. Yes, the Salvation Army could become a bigger national player. Amy Sebring: Keith, I think because of the recent law I mentioned we will have disaster mitigation a priority in the near future at least. Elaine Sudanowicz: Don't forget ARC gained influence from Elizabeth Dole. Amy Sebring: Let's move on... Amy Sebring: Hi Elaine. Yes regarding Dole, who was a Republican also. Amy Sebring: We expect that the two candidates have sharply different views on global warming and possibly sustainability in general. This is related to disaster policy to the extent that severe weather effects might be anticipated from any such global warming. Amy Sebring: You recall that Al Gore wrote a book on this topic, although he seemed to downplay it somewhat during the campaign. Whereas Bush is expected to be more allied with the oil industry's point of view, considering his background. Amy Sebring: Question 2: Will the winner's attitude towards the environment and sustainability issues in general affect disaster policies? What about global warming in particular? Amy Sebring: Please respond with respect to either Bush or Gore as you wish. John Anderson: This is the most pressing issue of our time - a President, any President - ignores it at his own peril Rick Tobin: Global Warming is real...but I doubt it will be supported in a Bush administration. Expect major changes in the EPA and OSHA. Amy Sebring: I would expect less funding for research on this issue in a Bush administration perhaps ... Amy Sebring: and not much movement towards international accords such as Kyoto. John Anderson: EDF has already moved back to a strategy of moving on the major corporations Isabel McCurdy: EDF? Rick Tobin: The Kyoto Accord is a toothless hound dog. Amy Sebring: EDF=Environmental Defense Fund? ray pena: Yes and yes. How much, who knows? John Anderson: Many of those larger corporations have their own mitigation policies but these may be back-burnered. Amy Sebring: For example, would you expect Bush to move for national building codes? or leave it up to industry and to the states? Elaine Sudanowicz: I fear that global warming will force Bush or Gore to deal with the impact of catastrophic flooding of the Northeast coast. Unfortunately, when the disaster strikes then, only then, will it be placed on their radar screen. John Anderson: Yes Environmental Defence Fund - bunch of clever, motivated New York lawyers John Anderson: The question to ask is - Does Bush accept the environment as a security item? John Anderson: If so, expect military help. John Anderson: If not- who knows? Amy Sebring: Florida has been a leader in many instances (and California) .... Amy Sebring: might G.W. consult with Jeb on some of these issues possibly? John Anderson: Always consultation, yep Roger Kershaw: I doubt Bush would support a national building code, and on the other hand, with the trend toward "performance" based codes, that may be a good thing. Isabel McCurdy: What is performance based codes? Rick Tobin: Well, the Clinton Administration set up a committee on Mass Migration. When I brought up the Global Warming impacts on Coastal communities they refused to respond. I think the blindness goes past the polling booth. If both parties don't get the picture of what a 10 degree shift in temperature means to world stability, well, it's time to go underground to the Carlsbad Caverns. ray pena: I think Bush will agree that mitigation is important. I think he can be convinced to support workable methods, within the framework of how he believes government is best handled. John Anderson: On Global warming - Dr Hansen says we need to do diesel engines and biomass burning first Roger Kershaw: Codes without specific rules. Only meeting a general level of safety, or performance Amy Sebring: Moving on to question 3, it seemed to me that there were a few instances where President Clinton used his powers to declare disasters in a broader way than might have been anticipated. Amy Sebring: Please consider Question 3: Will we see broader or narrower use of the Presidential Disaster Declaration during the next term? from both angles, that is how might we expect Bush to act vs. how we might expect Gore to respond. Feel free to guess! John Anderson: If broader showed good results, expect broader to be used more, even under Bush. ray pena: I think it will vary. These declarations are very political. Elaine Sudanowicz: Extremely narrower use of Presidential disaster declarations. Amy Sebring: My guess would be that in those cases which were "borderline" Gore would be more inclined to declare disasters, whereas Bush would stick more closely to established guidelines and rely on FEMA recommendations. Rick Tobin: Much narrower. That's been coming for years. More shift to state budgeting and planning for anticipated disasters. Why do you think EMAC has been so touted. Claire Rubin: I think fewer, regardless of who wins. Amy Sebring: Let's come back to the Witt issue raised earlier ... Amy Sebring: Moving on to Question 4: FEMA Director James Lee Witt has no doubt had a significant impact on federal policy. The Disaster Mitigation Act we spoke of earlier can be seen as the outgrowth of his Project Impact initiative. Amy Sebring: Although the outcome is still up in the air, what is your guess on Question 4: Will James Lee Witt be re-appointed as FEMA Director? Will he accept? ray pena: It would be nice. I don't expect it. John Anderson: yes and yes (just a guess) Amy Sebring: My guess is Witt would accept another term, to see the implementation of Disaster Mitigation Act through ... Amy Sebring: Bush expressed great respect for Witt during the campaign ... Amy Sebring: however, there was the little issue of the misstatements regarding visits to Texas. Elaine Sudanowicz: I believe regardless of who is President, it would be wise to reappoint James Lee Witt. However, he may not accept unless he can continue to achieve results and continue his initiatives. Isabel McCurdy: I sure hope so. Terry Storer: I would doubt that JLW would be re-appointed due to his active campaigning for the VP. John Anderson: people - even politicians - like to be associated with success and heroism Amy Sebring: Bush may perhaps see Witt as closely aligned with Clinton/Gore politics? Claire Rubin: Remember that both candidates owe a lot of people favors and jobs Amy Sebring: Ok, this was not on the list but ... Amy Sebring: if Bush wins and does NOT request Witt to stay on ... Amy Sebring: who do you think he might consider appointing? John Anderson: I think there will be some leverage on those appointments due to closeness of results. ray pena: See Claire's response. Amy Sebring: Florida Director? Especially if Florida elects Bush? Joe Myers? Elaine Sudanowicz: David Rodham Amy Sebring: Please explain who David Rodham is Elaine. Amy Sebring: Any other guesses or suggestions? Amy Sebring: Any favorites? ray pena: A related question: Does Bush dare go back to appointing anyone, regardless of expertise, in the wake of Witt's excellence? Claire Rubin: Rodham is from MA-- solid democratic! Elaine Sudanowicz: David Rodham is past President of NEMA, former Director of MEMA, Former Executive Secretary of EOPS, and currently in FEMA Region 1 as Region 1 and a great Republican ! Amy Sebring: Thanks Elaine. Good question Ray. Amy Sebring: Do you think Bush will look more for expertise ... Amy Sebring: or pay back political support? John Anderson: ray..answer..NO he can let that one go easily, it's a gimme Amy Sebring: I expect that for FEMA Director, he would be looking primarily for expertise ... Elaine Sudanowicz: Bush picked Dick Cheney so he may go for experience and proven performance again. Amy Sebring: but if he can achieve both at the same time, so much the better probably. Amy Sebring: Let's go on ... Amy Sebring: For Question 5, let us assume that Bush will be the winner. The Global Disaster Information Network (GDIN) initiative is closely identified with Al Gore. After all, he invented the Internet, right? Amy Sebring: If you recall, an Executive Order was issued by President Clinton supporting GDIN, however, I don't believe any funds have been provided. Amy Sebring: In the session we did on this topic, we were told that the Executive Order would stand unless revoked by the next President. Question 5: Will the GDIN initiative, survive? if Bush is the winner? ray pena: Maybe, but I'm not optimistic. The question for Bush: Is this important enough to care about? Amy Sebring: I could see some limited funding provided, if Bush thought it were a limited effort perhaps. John Anderson: nah....it goes ahead full bore - be my guess Amy Sebring: And a more or less voluntary effort with the private sector participating. Amy Sebring: Ok, let's go on. If I go too fast and you have an answer on a previous question, pop it in anyway. ray pena: If there is strong private sector support that could sway Mr. Bush to support it. Amy Sebring: For the next question, let's also take it from the angle that Bush has won. You may recall there was a time when the Republicans were questioning the role of the USGS and suggesting that the private sector could provide the same services as the National Weather Service. Amy Sebring: Question 6: Will the new President's budget priorities have an impact on the other agencies and disaster-related programs such as the USGS, NOAA/NWS, funding for research? EPA? DOT? Amy Sebring: If Bush gets these broad tax cuts, will it have an impact on existing programs? Claire: Yes ray pena: Yes. Of course they will. LindaUnderwoodCERTLA: .Yes John Anderson: maybe Elaine Sudanowicz: You may see more R&D going into DoD that will be earmarked for dual use technology for civilian use. Claire: Disaster research/preparedness funding is always precarious. Keith Featherstone: Lots of cuts in programs and people Amy Sebring: Do you think existing levels will be maintained ... that is no growth ... Amy Sebring: or do you think there will be across the board cuts? Roger Kershaw: I would expect cuts in areas of duplicity at least. Seems to me these agencies have many overlapping research and programs. ray pena: I think Roger is right. I think we can expect a hunt for duplication with an eye towards eliminating it. Amy Sebring: I think EPA might take a bigger hit perhaps. Amy Sebring: Claire would you agree? Claire: I do not think that is true about duplication Claire: EPA is primarily a regulatory agency and does not do a major amount of research re hazards/disasters Amy Sebring: I meant overall, not just research. Amy Sebring: Let's continue ... Amy Sebring: Disasters have perhaps even more impact internationally, especially on developing nations, already struggling with debt repayments. U.S. assistance seems to be on an ad hoc basis at times. Amy Sebring: There is also a difference between more conservative and more liberal attitudes towards the role of the United Nations. The campaigns focused more on the use of the military, however, what is the difference regarding the humanitarian use? Amy Sebring: Question 7: Will the new President's attitude toward the international role of the U.S. have any impact on global cooperation? Please respond from either perspective as you wish. Amy Sebring: Let's also get the Canadian perspective in on this one ... John Anderson: offshore disasters of scale need international co- operation - I think any administration will help out there - but how? Amy Sebring: what do our Canadian participants today think about the U.S. election, and what is happening in the Canadian election? ray pena: Absolutely. Monica Zaccarelli: If I can expand on question 7... I work for the Pan American Health Organization, so very concern with international cooperation. Our traditional counter part has been USAID/OFDA but after Mitch FEMA has been active in Central America. Most of us seem to think Witt remains but do you think FEMA's role abroad will be strengthen with Bush? Any opinions on that? Elaine Sudanowicz: There will be a shift in our commitments overseas for humanitarian assistance provided by the U.S. military. Claire: International response is often driven by political and geopolitical considerations, not just humanitarian needs. Amy Sebring: Again, I see more emphasis on NGO's with Bush … Amy Sebring: but not necessarily more support. John Anderson: we have no polarity - communism and democracy - anymore .....room for more co-operation John Anderson: NATO already has a deal on that one through P4P Amy Sebring: please spell out P4P John. Amy Sebring: Canadian views? John Anderson: Partnerships for Peace - NATO & Russia Amy Sebring: What impact if any does this election have for Canada? John Anderson: In our ice storms, a C5A and an Antonov responded - tell you anything? ray pena: Monica - don't count on it, but don't be surprised either way. John Anderson: none - Canada will go Liberal..Question is minority or majority govt. Amy Sebring: Is Colin Powell being considered for Secretary of State? Amy Sebring: Will that have an impact? John Anderson: Colin is highly respected everywhere ray pena: Maybe. If so, yes. Amy Sebring: Particularly in role of military? ray pena: Yes. John Anderson: excellent choice ray pena: Mr. Powell is an extraordinary man. Amy Sebring: Highly respected by many. Let's go on, as I watch the clock ... John Anderson: P4P = http://hq.nato.int/docu/review/articles/9603- a.htm Amy Sebring: As we mentioned earlier, the split in Congress also appears to be even, although I understand Republicans will continue to control, and therefore have the power of committee appointments etc. Amy Sebring: We have also seen the formation of the Natural Hazards Caucus in the Senate, and we understand they plan to move forward during January. Amy Sebring: I am also unclear as to what impact this election will have on the current budget battles. So we would appreciate hearing anything you may have heard on that. Let's take Questions 8 and 9 together ... Amy Sebring: Question 8: Will the Congressional outcome have any impact on disaster policies? and Question 9: Will there be any serious effort in the next Congressional session to reduce disaster costs? At least the costs to the federal government? ray pena: Yes for both. Amy Sebring: I tend to agree that the next Congress will look more seriously at reducing disaster costs. John Anderson: on costs - there should be - we can make a difference there :-) www.waterbomber.com Claire: Re #9: I think congress has been seriously concerned about costs for some years. Elaine Sudanowicz: I think there will be scrutiny of the wildfires out west and continued discussions in Congress concerning those expenditures. Amy Sebring: This may be just a shift in cost sharing. Kevin Farrell: privatize, privatize, privatize... it's the Republican line ray pena: Amy - I think you are right. John Anderson: what about militarize militarize militarize? Kevin Farrell: that too John Amy Sebring: Somebody mentioned EMAC earlier. If that effort shows cost savings to the federal government, I would expect that approach to be supported. John Anderson: hard to get new-hires in a fire program in a burgeoning economy Amy Sebring: We hear that a lot John. Amy Sebring: We could probably do a whole nuther session on impact for the Fire community in particular! John Anderson: so change out the role of the military as they seem more ready to accept environment as a security item Amy Sebring: Our final question is somewhat rhetorical. My experience is that we, those who are involved in the "disaster business" on a continuing basis, are heavily relied upon by elected officials to guide them, especially when the disaster hits ... Amy Sebring: but that in matters of policy, before a disaster happens, we have a more limited role, and that other political factors may be determining, such as those we have been talking about today. Claire: Gov. bush has already said he wants the military to curtail their role. Amy Sebring: Do you agree? Do we need to get more involved in determining policy? How do we do that? Question 10: Will we constantly need to re-educate newly elected officials at every level? ray pena: Yes, as we constantly need to educate and re-educate everyone we serve. Elaine Sudanowicz: Amen!! Isabel McCurdy: Yes for sure !! Amy Sebring: And if you have any other thoughts regarding the election that we have not covered ... Amy Sebring: please go ahead and put them in now. LindaUnderwoodCERTLA: Absolutely! John Anderson: "when the roof is leaking and it's raining, it's too wet to fix; when the Sun comes out, the roof isn't leaking. Go figure. Do they really want to hear from us? Amy Sebring: Terrorism seems to have a heavy focus and I expect that to continue. Amy Sebring: A significant natural disaster could have an unanticipated impact. John Anderson: the Russians are moving on Afghanistan as we write ray pena: Remember our duty as public servants: make the most of available resources, including the commitment made by our political leaders. Elaine Sudanowicz: I agree, we still need to continue preparedness of first responders concerning WMD incidents. We have an increase in school children playing with pepper spray. We need to educate. Amy Sebring: Finally, one thing we can say about the election, it has been pretty exciting! Stay tuned! Amy Sebring: Thank you all very much for your participation today. I will have a transcript posted later on this afternoon. Amy Sebring: Next week we will be meeting in the Tech Arena for a session on a training application called MUSTER. This is aimed primarily at the medical emergency response community, but I think you will find it quite interesting in the way that it provides for simulation of decision-making. Amy Sebring: Please consider joining us then. We will adjourn the session for now, but please, give yourselves a round of applause for today!