Delaware Chapter, ASA

Dinner Meeting: May 2006

Speaker: John W. Green
Senior Consultant
Biostatistics, DuPont
Title: Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Environmental Protection


This talk will cover some of the newer statistical methodologies that are coming into use in the environmental risk assessment regulatory arena. There is a European effort, called EUFRAM (EUropean FRAMework for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of the environmental impacts of pesticides), which is getting ready to issue a set of documents giving both the theoretical tools and practical means for carrying out these methods. The speaker is an active participant in EUFRAM. US regulatory agencies are also actively exploring and developing these tools, but in a less systematic manner.

Some attention will be given to the regulatory scene mentioned above, contrasting past and current practice with the new approach. Most of the talk will focus on the statistical tools themselves, supplemented by examples. Of particular note is the species sensitivity distribution (SSD) used to characterize the effect of chemicals in the environment on the whole ecosystem. SSDs will be defined, illustrated, and critiqued. Monte Carlo methods are an important tool in PRA and will be used to help illustrate the difference between variability and uncertainty and their effects on risk assessment.

In addition to SSDs to characterize the effect of chemicals, PRA also considers models for the level of exposure. Variability and uncertainty are present in these exposure models as well as in the effects model (e.g., SSDs). Finally, the exposure and effects models are combined to provide a framework for the overall risk assessment.

A bottle of environmental run-off will be given as a door prize to some lucky member of the audience.

This talk illustrates a very important application of statistical methods. You all are ENCOURAGED to attend!

Date: Thursday, May 18, 2006

Social hour -- 6:00 pm
Dinner -- 6:30 pm
Speaker -- 7:15 pm

Newark Holiday Inn
Oliver's Restaurant map

Entree: Boneless Stuffed Chicken Breast with Homemade Dressing, OR
Broiled Filet of Flounder with Citrus Sauce



$25 for members, $15 for students ($5 for talk only)



Bruce Stanley by Wednesday, May 16, 2006.
Phone: 302-831-1989
Fax: 302-831-4205
Email: Bruce Stanley.

Please indicate your entree choice in your RSVP. Also, if you desire a vegetarian meal, please indicate that in your RSVP.

Please note: Be sure to RSVP by this date, to assure a meal is reserved for you.

Future meetings will continue to be at Oliver's restaurant until further notice. The following is a list of the dates of future meetings in 2006 (third Thursday of month from 6 - 10 pm):
(Summer Break)
September 21, 2006
October 19, 2006
November 16, 2006
December 21, 2006
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