At the beginning of the semester we saw that political parties and politicians frequently make judgements about the political ideology of the American people, and they sometimes see significant changes in voters underlying political philosophy. I also argued that these judgments about change may be mistaken, that the electorate may in fact exhibit more consistency than election results would suugest. Hence, the fact that Ronald Reagan, an avowed conservative ("classical liberal"), won the presidency twice by landslides did not necessarily mean that the public had become more conservative. Nor did the Republican triumph in the 1994 congressional elections signal a swing toward conservatism.

Note, in addition, that George W. Bush's 2000 presidential campaign has stressed the need to keep government from getting too big and expensive. He repeatedly criticized his opponent, Al Gore, for proposing large increases in government spending. Bush's message was that government should be scaled back. More important, he implied that he would hold the line on spending, perhaps even cut some programs and reduce waste in others. He said again and again "I trust the people. So let's let them have a tax break so that they can decide how they want to spend their money." This position implied that Bush favored reductions in most government programs, except perhaps defense and education and rested on the assumption that Americans wanted less government.

But do they? Has the public changed ideologically? In the end whether or not the public is becoming more or less conservative is an empirical question, one that only be answered by looking a data like public opinion polls.

You can test or investigate the various propositions by analyzing shifts (or lack of change) in public opinion. Doing so requires examining data from a reliable source. Perhaps the best source is the "General Social Survey." It's a poll that has been conducted yearly since the early 1970s by the National Opinion Research Center (NORC) at the University of Chicago.

• OVERVIEW:
  • You need to find public opinion data.
  • The data should show how the public's opinion about the role in government have changed in the last 30 years.
  • Once you have this information you can make tables or graphs that show trends in opinion over time.
  • This information can then be used in a brief (one or two paragraph) report.
• DATA:
• Go to the General Social Survey web page as indicated in the notes.
• You will now be at a site that contains the General Social Survey, an "poll" of American public opinion on a variety of attitudes and issues.
  • Note that these are the very data that many scholars use.
• On the left find and click on "Collections."
• When the new page loads click on "Variables by Year" (Each rounds set of variables.)
• You'll see a list of years. Click on 1974.
• Scroll down until you find the variable names and labels starting with N.
  • Make sure you clicked on 1974.
• Find the variables:
  • NATAID Foreign aid
  • NATARMS Military, armaments, and defense
  • NATCITY Solving problems of big cities
  • NATCRIME Halting rising crime rate
  • NATDRUG Dealing with drug addiction
  • NATEDUC Improving nations education system
  • NATENVIR Improving, protecting environment
  • NATFARE Welfare
  • NATHEAL Improving, protecting nations health
  • NATRACE Improving the conditions of blacks
  • NATSPAC Space exploration program
• You want to get the data for each year. To do follow these steps.
  • First click on NATAID.
  • A new browser window should open.
  • Look at the top of the second window. You'll see the question and some beige tabs at the top.
  • Copy the question wording at the top.
    • Tip: Use the cut and paste features of your computer to copy the question wording to a word processor or Notepad.
    • Each table or graph that you submitt should contain the question wording. Don't omit this crucial step.
  • As an example, here is the question wording for NATAID that we clicked on above:

    "We are faced with many problems in this country, none of which can be solved easily or inexpensively. I'm going to name some of these problems, and for each one I'd like you to tell me whether you think we're spending too much money on it, too little money, or about the right amount. Are we spending too much money, too little money, or about the right amount on...Foreign aid."

    • As noted, copy or cut and paste the question wording.
    • Make sure that the appropriate question wording appears with each graph.
• Now, click on the "Trends" tab at near the top of the window.
• You'll find a "crosstabulation" of the answers to the question by year.
• Here's what(part of) it (the crosstabulation looks like.>

• ANALYSIS:
  • The table lists years along the top as column labels and responses to a question down the side as row labels.
    • For each variable obtain the raw cross-classification that relates percentages to years.
    • Make sure you understand how to read the data that appear in the table.
    • Each entry tells you the percent of the respondents in a year who gave a particular response.
    • Another example
    • You have to scroll down and across the page to see all of the data, since the tables are too big to fit on one screen.
    • COPY OR PRINT THE ENTIRE TABLE
• ASSIGNMENT:
  • If your last name begins with a letter betweeb A and H, do tables for these variables or questions:
    • NATAID Foreign aid
    • NATARMS Military, armaments, and defense
    • NATCITY Solving problems of big cities
    • NATCRIME Halting rising crime rate
  • If your last name begins with a letter betweeb I and M, do tables for these variables or questions:
    • NATDRUG Dealing with drug addiction
    • NATEDUC Improving nations education system
    • NATENVIR Improving, protecting environment
    • NATFARE Welfare
  • If your last name begins with a letter betweeb N and Z, do tables for these variables or questions:
    • NATFARE Welfare
    • NATHEAL Improving, protecting nations health
    • NATRACE Improving the conditions of blacks
    • NATSPAC Space exploration program

• Submit a brief (two-paragraphy) report that
• answers the questions
• Does the public seem willing to cut domestic and foreign aid programs?
• Has its opinions changed significantly in the last 20 years or so.
• The paper should includes the neatly typed and presented tables or graphs.
• The assignment due April 11, 2002 (in class).
• Counts 5 points.

SUMMARY OF RULES

• I make all judgments about grades. To obtain full credit you have to produce an outstanding report or proposal. A paper that just "covers the ground" will earn a satisfactory grade such as a C- to C+. Thus, if you want more than just a couple of points, put some thought and effort into the assignment.Turning in a lot of graphs or tables won't necessarily guarantee anything. You should make sure that your data support your conclusions and vice versa.
• Due April 11, 2002 in class.
  • No exceptions
• Report must be typed.
• No handwritten or drawn figures, tables, or graphs.
• Name and student number typed.
• Your name on the report means you give your word of honor that you worked alone.

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