The United States deliberately forced the Japanese into a position in which they had no choice but to attack. By cutting off Japan's access to the raw materials needed for its war against China, and by refusing to compromise, United States policy created the conditions whereby the Japanese would attack in order to take the supplies they needed by force. American foreign policy was deliberately provocative. The Roosevelt administration had already cracked the Japanese military codes and must have known weeks in advance of Japan's planned attack.

The United States had plenty of warning that the Japanese would attack Pearl Harbor and should have realized that the attack was imminent. Government officials failed to interpret the evidence correctly because their beliefs about Japan's intentions were at odds with the evidence they confronted.

President Roosevelt did not deliberately maneuver the nation into war by permitting the Japanese to attack. Rather, the Roosevelt administration was guilty of badly misinterpreting Japanese strategy. The American government had enough information to predict the attack but failed to do so. To the surprise of most Americans, the Japanese orchestrated a daring and skillful attack.