Research will be performed by Dr.
Laurence S. Kalkstein, Dr.
Gregory Gurri
Glass, Associate Professor Molecular Microbiology & Immunology, Johns
Hopkins University, and Meghan E. Dey, undergraduate research assistant
A two year, joint project between Johns Hopkins
University and the University of Delaware has begun as of November
1997 researching climate's effects on the spread of infectious and/or
vector-borne diseases. The focus of the
first year will be on Lyme disease in the area around the Susquehanna
River Basin, Maryland, Virginia, and the Chesapeake Bay.
Dr. Gregory Gurri Glass gave us a paper by Mount et al.
entitled,
Simulation of
Blacklegged Tick (Acari: Ixodidae) Population Dynamics and Transmission
of Borrelia burgdorferi. He also supplied us with a computer
program that
called, LYMESIM, that utilizes the model in the paper to predict the
abundance of adult ticks as well as the expected rate of Lyme disease
cases. Research has already been done to try and predict the abundance of
adult ticks (which correlates to the spread of Lyme disease). A model
has
already been created to predict the abundance of adult ticks that is based
on the many physical conditions affecting the ticks and the spread of the
disease. Climate was a minor consideration in the creation of this model.
The model appears to be a good approach to predicting the abundance of
adult ticks. The goal for the Center of Climatic Research is to show
conclusively that a relationship between climate and the abundance of
adult ticks will support or drive the existing model and then possibly
adjust the model to account for climatic conditions. The Center for
Climatic Research has the following duties to perform: