Panelists present varying assessments of prospects in Iraq

10:30 a.m., Nov. 21, 2003--One of the panelists at a campus discussion on rebuilding Iraq Wednesday evening said it could take up to 10 years to get Iraq operating as an independent democracy. Another thought it would take two years. The third wasn’t convinced it would happen at all.

“Rebuilding Iraq: Progress or Quagmire?” panelists (from left): Diplomat Robin Raphel, U.S. Army Col. John Martin and Washington Post reporter Robin Wright.

U.S. Army Col. John Martin, Washington Post reporter Robin Wright and diplomat Robin Raphel participated in the “Rebuilding Iraq: Progress or Quagmire?’’ panel moderated by Ralph J. Begleiter, Rosenberg Professor of Communication at UD. They discussed the divergent views of the war in the U.S.

“Many people just don’t know what to believe,’’ Martin, a West Point graduate and a career officer, said. “From the media, it seems they hear only bad news. On the other hand, they hear military and civilian leaders say all is well and going according to plan. The truth has to lie somewhere in between.’’ Martin pointed out that Iraqi schools are now open, utilities are restored and Iraqi citizens are providing information to allied forces.

Raphel, a career diplomat who worked on the reconstruction, said the situation in Iraq is not as bad as it often looks. She said schools, clinics and banks are open in most places, civil servants are being paid again, electricity is more equitably distributed than during the Hussein regime and polls show most Iraqis think they are better off than they were before the war. “I never met an Iraqi who did not tell me that they were glad he was gone,’’ she said. Raphel characterized the situation as a glass half full.

Wright said, from her perspective as a reporter covering the reconstruction, the glass was half empty. She said U.S. troops in Baghdad are cordoned off from the Iraqi people, and the actions of the Coalition Provisional Authority have contributed to the friction between Iraqis and American troops. She said many Iraqis have at least one family member in the military so they took umbrage at the authority’s decision not to pay the Iraqi army as peacekeepers after the war. She said many of the army members who lost their jobs had helped the American effort by declining to fight during the war.

All the speakers agreed that coalition efforts after the war got off to a bad start.

“It doesn’t take a scholar to recognize that the reconstruction of Iraq got off to a funky start,” Martin said. He said a career diplomat might have been a better choice than Gen. Jay Gardner, who he said was reluctant to demand military officers provide protection of the Iraqi infrastructure while there was a shooting war going on.

“It’s very clear that the effort for the postwar phase was not well-planned,’’ Raphel said.

Some of the problems would happen in any occupation, Raphel said. “Nobody likes being occupied. There’s chaos, a level of anxiety. Occupation is a nuisance, and it’s also a reminder of a somewhat humiliating fact—that they could not, on their own, get rid of Saddam Hussein.”

The speakers had different perspectives on the fact that no weapons of mass destruction have been found.

“I’m just a little uncomfortable with the fact that we didn’t see weapons of mass destruction,’’ Martin said. “I think we will see them eventually.’’

Wright said the Clinton and Bush administrations referred to lists of weapons that were actually just worst-case-scenario checklists made up by weapons inspectors during the first Gulf War. She said she saw that Hussein had chemical weapons during the first Gulf War, though.

Their forecasts for the time after the U.S. hands over the government to Iraqis next summer were less sure.

Raphel said there’s an enormous potential for success in Iraq, but it’s a high-risk situation if Americans don’t follow through.

Wright said no war since Vietnam may end up being more divisive, because of the aftermath.

“Failure may not be a choice, but, however well-intentioned our actions in Iraq are, I think we could very well fail to create a viable democracy,’’ Wright said. “Clearly there are going to be a lot of questions about whether the United States is cutting and running because of the electoral schedule.

“There is no guarantee this group will bring democratic ideals when we turn over the government.… I would like to believe it’s all going to work, and I’m optimistic that, down the road, we’ll see the Middle East move toward democracy. I’m not convinced that Iraq is where it’s likely to begin though,’’ Wright said.

Martin said support of the American public is the key to success in Iraq. He predicted Americans might be in Iraq for 10 more years.

“We’re in a global war on terrorism,’’ he said. “It’s not just Iraq. I think we have to be prepared for an attack in the U.S., too. My faith tells me to turn the other cheek. I’d like to follow my faith, but I don’t believe that will work in this situation.’’

Photo by Duane Perry

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