Amy Sebring: On behalf of Avagene Moore and myself, welcome to the EIIP Virtual Forum! Our topic today is Hazards or Vulnerability? Rethinking Theory and Policy. Amy Sebring: This session follows on two recent sessions on similar themes with Richard Sylves from the University of Delaware, and our last session with Art Lerner-Lam from Columbia University. If you missed those sessions, please see the transcripts. Amy Sebring: Today we will be discussing the theoretical underpinnings of public policy for disaster reduction. The current proposal is to form a separate Preparedness Directorate within DHS and to return FEMA to stand alone status focused on response and recovery... Amy Sebring: but notably absent in the present proposals is any increased emphasis on mitigation which is somewhat surprising given the nature of the New Orleans catastrophe. Amy Sebring: Before we get into our discussion, for the benefit of any first- timers, we will go over the order of business. We will begin with a presentation and then we will proceed to your questions and comments. Amy Sebring: We will provide further instructions just before we begin the Q&A section, but you may wish to jot down your questions or comments as we go along. Amy Sebring: Please do not send private messages to our speaker or the moderator, as we will be busy with the presentation. If you need assistance, you may send a private message to Avagene. Amy Sebring: A formatted transcript of today's session will be available by later this afternoon -- just check back on our home page or the background page (refresh the pages as needed). Amy Sebring: Now it is my pleasure to introduce today's speaker. Dr. David McEntire, Associate Professor with the University of North Texas Department of Public Administration. For those who may not be aware, UNT was a pioneer in establishing a degree program for emergency management ... Amy Sebring: the Emergency Administration and Planning program. In addition to his teaching duties, Dr. McEntire's academic interests include emergency management theory, international disasters, community preparedness, response coordination, and vulnerability reduction. Amy Sebring: He has conducted several research projects and has just signed a contract to write a book on disaster resilience with Wiley Publishers. Please see the Background Page for further biographical information and links to topic- related material. Amy Sebring: Welcome to the Forum David, and thank you very much for being with us today. I now turn the floor over to you to start us off please. David McEntire: Good morning. It is a privilege to be with you today and share a few thoughts about the study and practice of emergency management. David McEntire: At the outset, I must add that it is a little intimidating to discuss disasters with you as the subject is very broad and as each of you have great knowledge of your respective disciplines and professions. David McEntire: I am more of a generalist, which means I know nothing about everything! Regardless, I hope that my comments might be of some benefit and cause some much needed reflection on our important field. David McEntire: As you are well aware, disasters appear to be increasing in frequency and intensity. The recent terrorist attacks, tsunami, hurricanes, earthquake and potential for disease outbreaks reveal significant loss of life, economic stress and social disruption among other negative consequences. David McEntire: If we are to reverse this trend, or at least hold the line, we must do more to prevent disasters and be better prepared for response and recovery operations. This, in turn, suggests that we should view disasters differently than we have in the past. David McEntire: Whether we recognize it or not, theory guides policy. Theory likewise determines the effectiveness or ineffectiveness of plans, regulations and their associated activities. David McEntire: Since the birth of emergency management, scholars and public officials have been very concerned about hazards. It is obvious that these threats or events have the potential to create a great deal of destruction so there is justification in concentrating on them. David McEntire: Focusing too much on hazards may create several unexpected problems however. First, humans have little or no control over the occurrence of a tornado or a thunderstorm that produces copious amounts of rain. David McEntire: Second, giving too much attention to hazards often leads to dramatic fluctuations in policy (e.g., over the past 40 or 50 years, the US has moved from civil defense, to haz mat issues, to natural hazards, to Y2K and now to terrorism). David McEntire: As a result, patterns common to most disasters are overlooked. Finally, and most importantly, attention on hazards relegates human culpability for disasters to a neglected or unrecognized position. David McEntire: Some might argue that the term hazards includes or incorporates vulnerability. If we examine the initial definitions of hazards we see that there was no mention of the role people play in disasters (the volcano was the hazard). David McEntire: Today, more scholars do define hazards in reference to people, but the literature still discusses hazards as they relate to frequency, areal extent, magnitude, speed of onset -- the physical characteristics. David McEntire: In addition, hazards are categorized according to their origins. Again, human responsibility for the causes and consequences of disasters is downplayed, especially pertaining to those triggered by the physical environment. David McEntire: What I am suggesting is that we need to complete a paradigm shift toward the concept of vulnerability and give attention to how we might reduce it. Many others have made similar arguments in the past. David McEntire: Wisner et. al. state in At Risk that too much attention is given to the hazards and not enough to the human element of the disaster equation. In a prior online discussion, Sylves asserted that giving an inordinate amount of attention on hazards can be "too limiting or a digression." David McEntire: Last week, Dr. Lerner-Lam asserted "it is imperative to reduce the vulnerability of developing countries to natural hazards." And Bender boldly declares "It is the vulnerability, stupid!" David McEntire: I agree with these statements and I would ask us as Salter does to consider shifting attention from hazards to vulnerability if we really want to address the disaster problem. David McEntire: So, what is vulnerability? Vulnerability, in my mind, suggests a proneness to disasters as well as an inability to react in an effective manner. David McEntire: I concur fully with my sociologist friends that vulnerability is related to many factors such as poverty, ethnicity, disability, age and gender. I would also agree with geographers that our location for development may also have bearing on vulnerability. David McEntire: Engineers explain that poor construction practices may influence the degree of vulnerability. One could argue that the poor planning and a lack of follow through by public officials in New Orleans or at the state and federal levels was one of the reasons why the impact of Katrina was so severe. David McEntire: A host of other variables could be listed as determinants of vulnerability including culture, politics, familiarity with technology, a failure to purchase insurance, education, legislation, urbanization, industrialization, code enforcement, health status, business practices, lack of personal responsibility, etc. David McEntire: The whole point of this discussion is that humans are augmenting vulnerability (and therefore disasters), but we can also take steps to limit vulnerability (and therefore disasters as well). David McEntire: In other words, our policies and activities should reduce liabilities from the physical and social environments (e.g., risk and susceptibility). We must build capabilities (e.g., resistance and resilience) in those same arenas as well. David McEntire: Such determinants of vulnerability are not mutually exclusive. Risk may be augmented by susceptibility, and a low degree of resistance may jeopardize resilience. Other complex relations are also possible and need to be understood. David McEntire: A major benefit of the concept of vulnerability is that it may allow us to reach holistic, integrated and interdisciplinary approaches to the disaster problem. A good argument can be made that this concept is related to all hazards, phases, actors involved in emergency management. David McEntire: To sum things up, I would assert the need to rethink the relative merit of the hazards and vulnerability concepts. In addition, I encourage increased interdisciplinary research in reference to disaster vulnerability. David McEntire: I also invite public servants and others in the private and non- profit sectors to consider the benefit of modifying our language in our discussions about disasters. For instance ... David McEntire: would decision makers and the public be more willing to invest money and resources on something we have influence over (i.e., our vulnerability to the hazards) versus on something we cannot control (i.e., hazards)? David McEntire: Lastly, I recommend that each of us do our part to reduce vulnerability as the means to minimize the probability and impact of disasters. After all, if disasters are rising and hazards are remaining constant as some declare, vulnerability must be to blame! David McEntire: That being said, I'll be pleased to address your questions and comments and turn the session back over to our Moderator. Amy Sebring: Thank you very much David. Now, to proceed to your questions. Our protocol for audience questions is to enter a question mark ? to indicate you wish to ask a question or make a comment. Amy Sebring: Then go ahead and compose your question or comment to have it ready, but do NOT hit your Enter key or click on the Send button until you are recognized by name. Please WAIT your turn. We will take questions in the order the question marks are sent to the screen. Amy Sebring: ONE QUESTION AT A TIME please and please keep your questions or comments reasonably concise. If you have a follow up question or comment, please get back in the line with another question mark. We are ready to begin now. Amy Sebring: Waiting for question marks anyone? Isabel McCurdy: ? Tim Newman: ? Amy Sebring: When you are ready please Isabel. Isabel McCurdy: David. what suggestions do you have to reduce our vulnerabilities? David McEntire: Thanks Isabel . . . David McEntire: I think there are many, many things that need to be done . . . David McEntire: We might want to better understand our vulnerabilities first. . . . David McEntire: We then need to conduct regular assessments of our liabilities and capabilities . . . David McEntire: In addition, we need to better educate citizens and politicians . . . David McEntire: We will need to strengthen prevention and preparedness institutions . . . Ronda Oberlin: ? David McEntire: Harness technology, protect the environment, reduce poverty, improve coordination, and focus on those who are most vulnerable. Amy Sebring: Tim next please. Shawn Smith: ? Tim Newman: I would agree that vulnerability is what we should focus on, but that is so much harder to get our arms around. We have special needs populations that cover such a wide range of "special needs". And that is not even half of what is considered "vulnerability". Where do we start? David McEntire: Yes, I agree Tim . . . David McEntire: It is a very difficult concept that is related to so many variables . . . David McEntire: It is related to politics, land use planning, economics . . . David McEntire: It is also related to culture and engineering. . . . David McEntire: We might want to note that it is related to several other important concepts being discussed today . . . David McEntire: such as risk, resistance, resilience and susceptibility. Paul Jensen: ? Amy Sebring: Ronda next please. Ronda Oberlin: Emergency management has always focused on resistance--get insurance, make a plan--and not resiliency. Do you have any success stories about resiliency planning? Any examples of communities who have approached vulnerability holistically? David McEntire: That is a good question . . . David McEntire: We are often more likely to hear about what went wrong, rather than what was done well. . . . David McEntire: New Orleans comes to mind as an example of the first. . . David McEntire: Perhaps we should focus our studies on the success stories in order to improve the field. Amy Sebring: Shawn next please ... Shawn Smith: Can you give us your thoughts on the Private Sector's role in vulnerability reduction? Critical Infrastructure Protection comes to mind.... David McEntire: I think you are right Shawn . . . David McEntire: The private sector is critical to the reduction of vulnerability . . . David McEntire: They can help in building construction, insurance . . . David McEntire: They are also able to assist in reducing hazmat issues . . . David McEntire: Without the private sector on board, we will only be working on three cylinders! Amy Sebring: (If anyone would like to share a success story or best practice, please do entering your question mark) Amy Sebring: Paul next please. Paul Jensen: Michael Chertoff and Jeb Bush have both recently stated that it is up to the individual to be prepared for disasters. Even going as far as to say that preparation is a virtue. Do you think that focusing on vulnerabilities rather than hazards sets up a victimhood? "I can't be prepared for (insert reason)." David McEntire: I think it is vitally important that everyone take responsibility . . . David McEntire: And that responsibility can be manifest in many ways . . . David McEntire: Evacuating when warned . . . Burt Wallrich: ? David McEntire: Taking care of your own sheltering needs . . . David McEntire: Having food and water and a 72 hour kit . . . David McEntire: Of course, we must also look out for others . . . David McEntire: the elderly, children, the disabled, etc. Amy Sebring: Burt next please. David McEntire: I should also add that we need to look after those without transportation! Burt Wallrich: Would you support telling people who have homes in ultra- vulnerable but beautiful locations like Malibu or the barrier islands that if they are wiped out they will have to bear the loss, not the taxpayers? David McEntire: Absolutely. I think we need to shift responsibility to those who take on risk voluntarily. Amy Sebring: ? Amy Sebring: David, a recent article I saw highlights how at the federal level, the various hazards are stovepiped into different agencies, i.e. EPA and hazmat, USGS and volcanoes, DHS and terrorism and so on, in response to past crises. Do we need some kind of interagency effort to comprehensively assess vulnerability? David McEntire: That would be an important recommendation Amy. . . David McEntire: For instance, we need to understand vulnerabilities related to . . . David McEntire: transportation systems, housing stock, infrastructure . . . David McEntire: computer systems and networks, food supply, . . . Avagene Moore: ? David McEntire: and many other issue areas. Amy Sebring: Ava next please. Avagene Moore: David, in light of the billions that will go to rebuild New Orleans when a fraction of that amount invested beforehand might have prevented the levee failures to begin with, ... David McEntire: Right now, of course, we are worried about Avian Flu. Avagene Moore: it would seem obvious that it is in the public interest to invest more in pre-disaster mitigation, yet this program is ridiculously underfunded. What needs to be done to keep the focus on this issue in the policymaking arena? David McEntire: You are correct Avagene. And this is really disappointing . . . David McEntire: We need to better inform the public that we are wasting tax dollars . . . David McEntire: And we need to be much more vocal to the politicians . . . David McEntire: that we cannot keep making the same mistakes over and over again. Amy Sebring: ? Gilbert Gibbs: ? Amy Sebring: David, how exactly does theory inform or influence policy? I do not see any really good examples of this. David McEntire: While we are waiting, we have some difficult choice to make in terms of vulnerability. David McEntire: I should clarify what I mean by this . . . Avagene Moore: ? David McEntire: I believe people's perspectives (whether academic or not) inform or influence policy . . . David McEntire: For instance, leaders believe our greatest threat is from terrorism . . . David McEntire: And so this perspective has dramatically changed the direction of emergency management . . . David McEntire: So, while academic theories may not have bearing on policy like we would like . . . Barry Drogin: ? David McEntire: all policies are driven by some sort of theory. Amy Sebring: Gil next please. Gilbert Gibbs: It seems that we're keeping up a band-aid form of alerts and answers, but no real means to get real education to the people who need the information. Is there a better way to mitigate all this than the past traditional ways that are not working so well? David McEntire: Good point Gil . . . David McEntire: Yes, I think we need to reach the children in schools. . . Ronda Oberlin: ? David McEntire: When I was young, everyone threw garbage can . . . David McEntire: Today, kids have been taught to recycle. . . . David McEntire: Why don't we have mandatory classes on disasters in schools? Amy Sebring: Ava next please. Avagene Moore: Follow up to your comments, David - Is it really true that theory guides policy? Claire Rubin has demonstrated in her popular Timelines that policy appears to be reactive to crises, (and possibly the media coverage of those events). David McEntire: Yes, I believe theory guides policy . . . David McEntire: But, again, that might be the politician's theory about what to do . . . David McEntire: versus what scholars think is most successful. Amy Sebring: Barry next please. Barry Drogin: I'm sorry I was late joining in and seem to have gotten straight to the Q&A. Certainly, with all the focus on reducing government, we're not advocating a return to the days of privatized fire departments, for example? I'm not sure I'm okay with policy shifts that just assume that we should be getting government out of everything. David McEntire: No, absolutely not . . . David McEntire: The government plays a vital role in reducing disasters and vulnerability . . . David McEntire: In fact, they play the lead role . . . David McEntire: and should take their responsibility more serious than in the past. Amy Sebring: Ronda next please. Ronda Oberlin: Forgetting the politicians for a moment, we need to get people to understand their role in their own vulnerability. The public education we have been doing for the past 50+ years apparently hasn't done that. Do you think this is an issue that emergency management can tackle, or is it much bigger? David McEntire: That is really something to think about . . . David McEntire: It is something that emergency managers must take the lead on . . . Tom Harnsberger: ? David McEntire: But we need to include churches, businesses, social groups . . . David McEntire: the Boy Scouts, and non-profit groups. . . David McEntire: And we need to make sure we are saying the same types of things . . . David McEntire: That disasters are on the rise . . . David McEntire: and that we must take action now. Amy Sebring: Tom next please. LloydBokman: ? Tom Harnsberger: The public education we have been doing for the last 50 years has done exactly what it was designed top do ...make people dependent upon others. If that was not the case, people would have gone when first offered a way out of Katrina. Tom Harnsberger: ? David McEntire: You're right Tom . . . David McEntire: We need to teach personal responsibility for ourselves. Amy Sebring: Lloyd is next please, then we will come back to Tom. LloydBokman: Dave, as you point out, vulnerability takes in so many factors from socio-economic, technical (examples: data back-up and toxicology in hazmat), insurance coverage (traditional risk management), preparedness (public and response agencies) and so many more. Somebody pointed out it's hard to get your arm around it all. Some say emergency management is part of a larger concept that some call Enterprise Risk Management and some have other terminologies. How to you see emergency management fitting into all this as a concept? David McEntire: Risk is another difficult concept to define . . . David McEntire: Some see it as probabilities . . . David McEntire: Others also include consequences . . . David McEntire: Different scholars assert that risk is a product of hazard and vulnerability . . . Barry Drogin: ? David McEntire: Others state that risk=H+V [-mitigation] . . . David McEntire: I would also add the importance of preparedness . . . David McEntire: In a nutshell, I believe risk is similar to vulnerability in that we cannot control hazards but our vulnerability to the hazards (looking at the above formulas). Amy Sebring: Tom next please. Tom Harnsberger: Responsibility is the key to preparedness. One must take the time to assess their needs for the potential disasters they may be faced with. Power companies need to look at better ways to provide power than overhead lines. More expensive, but underground lines would be less susceptible to damage from hurricane winds. That is just one example. David McEntire: Yes, you are right. . .. David McEntire: And we need to support our emergency managers in their duties right now . . . Tom Harnsberger: ? David McEntire: They are charged with all phases of emergency management . . . David McEntire: including more effort on mitigation . . . William Wilson: ? David McEntire: and they are overwhelmed with grant administration and do not have adequate staffing or financial support. Dan Robeson: ? David McEntire: Terrorism has only added to their plate. Amy Sebring: Let's go on to William next please. Amy Sebring: ? William Wilson: NFPA has been successful in reducing the vulnerability to fires through codes and public education. Do you see a group that can do the same for Emergency Management? David McEntire: Yes, . . . David McEntire: I think IAEM, NEMA and others can make a big difference . . . David McEntire: But we will need individuals at all levels of government . . . David McEntire: and in all sectors to participate and support the program. Amy Sebring: Dan next please. Dan Robeson: David - What resources (programs, research, case studies, etc.) would you suggest for practitioners who are interested in focusing local efforts on vulnerability issues? David McEntire: Well, in some ways we are just starting to scratch the issues . . . David McEntire: But there are some great resources out there . . . David McEntire: including Disasters by Design, At Risk . . . David McEntire: and several journals such as Disasters, Journal of Emergency Management, and others . . . David McEntire: There are also some well-known scholars such as Cutter, Mitchell . . . David McEntire: Quarantelli, Salter that have tackled the issue directly or indirectly. Amy Sebring: David, I think that for the most part, local emergency managers feel they have a lot on their plates as it is and that tackling poverty issues is not their expertise. ... Amy Sebring: However, do you see a need for more research on this issue, to clarify better how EMs can use poverty statistics e.g. in their planning? Not just for response, but also for preparedness (education) and recovery? David McEntire: I think you are right . . . David McEntire: and many of them do not understand the importance of political and economic issues in disasters . . . David McEntire: and they may fail to appreciate how this might impact the success of emergency management. Amy Sebring: Do you know of any research efforts planned on this topic? Amy Sebring: Do you think you will address in your book perhaps? David McEntire: Yes, I think demographic information and other stats can inform planning efforts . . . David McEntire: especially if we use GIS to help identify vulnerable areas and people. Amy Sebring: Tom, you have another question/comment? Tom Harnsberger: Not at this time. Barry Drogin: ? (missed?) Amy Sebring: Sorry Barry, please go ahead. Avagene Moore: ? Barry Drogin: Well, the media, which can be the government's strongest ally in educating the public, is too often seen by government itself as an adversary. We can talk and talk about public education, but government has to accept that the media is both the way to get the message out, and is also entrusted to criticize that message if it is insufficient. I don't know how to resolve that conundrum. David McEntire: Good point Barry . . . David McEntire: the media may be friend or foe . . . David McEntire: it really depends on how we engage and educate them. Amy Sebring: Ava next please. Avagene Moore: For years now, we have been talking about the gap between researchers and practitioners. How can we close that gap so both groups are sharing and benefiting from each other? I am of the opinion that unless that is done, we are going to rock on down the same old road we have been on for years at federal, state and local levels. David McEntire: This gap is real . . . David McEntire: but I think it is closing . . . David McEntire: One way to resolve the conflict is through educational programs . . . David McEntire: At UNT, we require our students to do internship . . . David McEntire: The students obviously gain a great deal from the knowledge and insights and professional emergency managers . . . David McEntire: Hopefully, some of the theory the students hold will rub off too. Amy Sebring: Any questions or comments from anybody who has not chimed in yet? Amy Sebring: (composing) Amy Sebring: David, what I see coming down the pike for the next couple of years at the local level ... Amy Sebring: is the requirements for HSPD#8 the National Preparedness Goals etc ... Amy Sebring: that do not even address mitigation unfortunately .. Amy Sebring: I feel this is going to keep local EMs very busy with paperwork, which is tied to grants and therefore is set as a priority ... Amy Sebring: how can we get vulnerability issues to be a priority in this environment? David McEntire: We are faced with difficult choices and limited budgets . . . David McEntire: I do think we have to address our vulnerability to terrorism . . . David McEntire: but that should not discount our efforts needed in natural disaster reduction . . . David McEntire: Therefore, I think the only option is to fund additional emergency managers to complete all of the additional tasks being given to them . . . David McEntire: Unfortunately, I do not see any way around this . . . Isabel McCurdy: ? David McEntire: We can also pressure our representatives, and I have done this many times with Congressman Burgess. Amy Sebring: Isabel next please. Isabel McCurdy: David, any date yet set for book release? Any snippets you can share? David McEntire: I have two books coming out shortly . . . David McEntire: One looks at the issue of disasters from the perspective of different disciplines . . . David McEntire: and it is on line in draft from on the FEMA website . . . David McEntire: The other is on resilience (response and recovery operations) . . . David McEntire: the draft should be out in January (hopefully!). Amy Sebring: Very good. We shall look forward to that ... Amy Sebring: and on that note, I think we will wrap it up for today .... Amy Sebring: hank you very much David for an excellent job. We hope you enjoyed the experience. Please stand by a moment while we make a couple of quick announcements .... Amy Sebring: Again, the formatted transcript will be available later today. If you are not on our mailing list and would like to get notices of future sessions and availability of transcripts, just go to our home page and click on Subscribe. Amy Sebring: Thanks to everyone for participating today. We stand adjourned but before you go, please help me show our appreciation to David for a fine job. David McEntire: Thank you Amy and EIIP for this opportunity. I appreciate the questions and comments also!