Amy Sebring: On behalf of Avagene and myself, welcome to the EIIP Virtual Forum! Today's topic is "What's Shaking in the USGS Earthquake Hazard Program?" The EHP is part of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) led by the FEMA. Amy Sebring: Now, for the benefit of any first-timers, we will go over the order of business. We will begin today's session with a presentation, and then we will proceed to your questions. Amy Sebring: We will be using a few slides today, so when you see a blue link, you can click on it and a graphic will open in a new browser window. After the first one, you may need to find and bring the window to the top to view. Amy Sebring: We will provide further instructions just before we begin the Q&A section, but you may wish to jot down your questions or comments as we go along. Amy Sebring: Please do not send private messages to our speaker or the moderator, as we will be busy with the presentation. If you need assistance, you may send a private message to Avagene Moore. Amy Sebring: An edited transcript of today's session, including links to the slides, will be available by this evening -- just check back on our home page or the background page. Please note that some additional links to related material are provided on the background page as well. Amy Sebring: Now, I have the pleasure of introducing today's speaker, Stephen R. Walter. Steve joined the USGS in 1982 to lead the seismic monitoring of the northern California Cascade volcanoes, which later expanded to include the rest of northern and central California. Amy Sebring: He began using GIS in the early 1990's, publishing seismicity maps for the San Francisco, San Jose, and Santa Rosa quadrangles, and eventually managing the Earthquake Team's GIS lab. In 2001 he accepted the assignment of Chief Scientist for Operations for the team. Amy Sebring: Welcome Steve, and thank you for joining us today. I now turn the floor over to you to start us off please. Steve Walter: Thanks Amy. To begin, I'd like to describe the mission of the US Geological Survey: The USGS serves the Nation by providing reliable scientific information to: 1. describe and understand the Earth; 2. minimize loss of life and property from natural disasters; 3. manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources; and 4. enhance and protect our quality of life. Steve Walter: I work with the USGS Earthquake Hazards Team where our focus is primarily on the first two elements. We do the scientific research on earthquake hazards and communicate our results to people like you who can use this information to make better decisions to protect lives and property. Steve Walter: In this presentation I will highlight three significant accomplishments that USGS, working with our partners, has achieved in the past 25 years: 1) Earthquake Monitoring, 2) Hazards Assessment, and 3) Paleoseismology. Steve Walter: First Accomplishment -- Earthquake monitoring and reporting: Congress, through the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP), has given USGS responsibility for monitoring and reporting earthquake activity in the United States and around the world. Steve Walter: We are the only agency responsible for tracking and warning of earthquakes. We do this through strong partnerships with universities and other institutions to maintain regional, national, and global networks of seismic monitoring stations. Steve Walter: In the past 25 years, we have made major improvements in seismic instrumentation and computer processing. This has dramatically improved both the quality and timeliness of our earthquake response. Steve Walter: We have gone from analog film recorders that took literally days to process to full-spectrum digital technology that detects and locates earthquakes automatically in near-real time. Steve Walter: By "near-real" time I mean having an earthquake location on our website within about a minute of when the earthquake occurred. As I tell visitors: "if you feel an earthquake, go to our website and I can almost guarantee that by the time you get there, there will be a dot on the map for the earthquake you just felt". Steve Walter: This first slide shows some very recent activity. Amy, Slide 1 please. Amy Sebring: http://www.emforum.org/vforum/usgs/slide01.htm Steve Walter: These significant improvements in detecting and processing earthquake data have put us on the threshold of the next generation of seismic network, a network we call the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS). Steve Walter: ANSS, authorized by Congress in November 2000, is a plan for at least 6,000 digital seismic stations to be emplaced in urban areas where the risk is greatest. This next slide shows the planned urban areas. Amy, Slide 2 please. Amy Sebring: http://www.emforum.org/vforum/usgs/slide02.htm Steve Walter: Half of the instruments will be placed in buildings and structures to provide critical information about building and site response for engineers. Steve Walter: The other half will be placed in the ground to improve our ability to locate earthquakes and to better understand the earthquake process itself. Steve Walter: Perhaps most important, the increased station coverage will immediately provide much better information about where the shaking is strongest, information that is especially valuable to emergency response personnel. Steve Walter: In areas where the station density is sufficient, we can post "ShakeMaps" on the Internet within about 5 minutes after an earthquake, showing regional severity and location of ground shaking. Valerie Quigley: ? Steve Walter: ShakeMap is an automatically generated computer map of the severity and distribution of ground shaking that is available on the Internet within 5-10 minutes after an earthquake. Steve Walter: Data from networks of seismometers can be used to produce a map showing the actual levels and pattern of strong ground shaking caused by an earthquake in an urban area. Steve Walter: Emergency management officials and managers of transportation, communication, and energy grids can use these ShakeMaps to direct the response to the earthquake, minimize its effects, and speed recovery. Steve Walter: The ShakeMap shown on the next slide was created following the Yountville earthquake of Labor Day, 2000. It is significant because it shows that shaking is not always strongest at the epicenter, shown here by the red star. Amy, Slide 3 please. Amy Sebring: http://www.emforum.org/vforum/usgs/slide03.htm Steve Walter: In this case, the seismic energy was readily transmitted by the hard rock of the hills near the epicenter but it became trapped in the thick, water-saturated soils of the Napa River Valley. Steve Walter: This caused an amplification of the seismic waves and much stronger shaking within the valley than otherwise would have been expected at this distance. ShakeMap takes surface geology into account and so gives a more accurate picture of where shaking is strongest ... Steve Walter: information that can be invaluable to emergency responders trying to figure out where to deploy their resources in the minutes and hours after a damaging quake. Steve Walter: We continue to refine and extend the ShakeMap. For example, ShakeCast, short for ShakeMap Broadcast, is a fully automated system for delivering specific ShakeMap products to critical users and triggering established post-earthquake response protocols. Steve Walter: ShakeCast allows utilities and other large organizations to automatically determine the shaking value at their facilities, set thresholds for notification of damage states for each facility and then automatically notify... Steve Walter: (via pager, cell phone, or email) specified operators, inspectors etc., within their organization who are responsible for those particular facilities. The California Department of Transportation (CalTrans) is testing the prototype system now... Steve Walter: they have more than 25,000 bridges and overpasses under their responsibility in California. ShakeCast will provide an instantaneous snapshot of the likely damage to each of these structures and will allow CalTrans managers to prioritize rerouting traffic, closures, and inspections following a damaging earthquake. Steve Walter: Complementing ShakeMap is the "Did You Feel It?" map that allows citizens to report how much shaking they felt after an earthquake. The automatically-generated and updated map shows shaking intensity organized by Zip Codes. Steve Walter: These interactive Web-based maps provide the public with a forum to communicate their experiences, assess impact, and learn more about earthquake activity. Steve Walter: For example, the "Did you feel it?" map on the next slide shows that 731 people logged on to describe how strongly they felt a M3.4 event near Orinda, CA this past Monday morning. Amy, Slide 4 please. Amy Sebring: http://www.emforum.org/vforum/usgs/slide04.htm Steve Walter: Second Accomplishment -- Hazard assessment: Hazard assemessment provides the vital connection between earthquake science and the actions needed to mitigate seismic risk. Steve Walter: Over the past 25 years, our hazard assessments have changed from paper maps showing only half a dozen broad hazard zones nationwide, to digital database containing expected ground shaking levels at more than 150,000 sites. Steve Walter: We completed a major revision in 1996, and an updated version was released last fall. We worked closely with partners and colleagues across the US to develop and review the new version. Amy, Slide 5 please. Amy Sebring: http://www.emforum.org/vforum/usgs/slide05.htm Steve Walter: This hazard map for the nation provides essential information for creating and updating the seismic design provisions of US building codes. In fact, the State of Washington recently adopted IBC2000 as the state building code; IBC2000 allows direct use of the USGS National Hazard Maps, and this was seen as one of the strong reasons for adoption. Steve Walter: Third Accomplishment -- Paleoseimolgy: Paleoseismology is a new field of earth science that provides direct evidence for prehistoric earthquakes through careful examination of exhumed fault traces, drowned coastlines, and exposed riverbanks. Amy, Slide 6 please. Amy Sebring: http://www.emforum.org/vforum/usgs/slide06.htm Steve Walter: The problem that paleoseismology helps solve is that the historical catalog of earthquakes in the Western US is only about 150 years long at best, which is inadequate in view of the length of recurrence time between major earthquakes. Steve Walter: The situation is even worse in the Central and Eastern US. Paleoseismologic investigations along active faults will extend our knowledge of large earthquakes back thousands of years, providing a much more accurate estimate of recurrence intervals for large events. Steve Walter: To summarize: all these are major accomplishments in the science that improve our nation's ability to protect people and property. They demonstrate as clearly as anything the essential role that Federal science plays in reducing our vulnerability to earthquakes. Steve Walter: A final thought before opening to questions: We have made a lot of progress -- but as population and infrastructure continue to concentrate in areas of high hazard, is the earthquake risk progressing even faster? Steve Walter: With that, I will turn it back over to our moderator. Amy? Amy Sebring: Thank you very much Steve. Our protocol for audience questions is to enter a question mark ? to indicate you wish to ask a question or make a comment. Bob Robinson: ? Valerie Quigley: ? Amy Sebring: Then go ahead and compose your question or comment to have it ready, but do NOT hit your Enter key or click on the Send button until you are recognized by name. Please WAIT your turn. Amy Sebring: We will take questions in the order the question marks are sent to the screen. One question at at time please. If you have a follow up, please get back on line with a ? Amy Sebring: There is a system limitation on length of one entry, so if necessary, you may need to break your question into parts. We are ready to begin now. Steve Reinbrecht: ? Amy Sebring: Valerie had a question mark up there earlier ... Valerie Quigley: Greetings from the Berkeley Hills - I'm at LBNL. Prediction capabilities, Steve? There was an interesting article in Science News (I think) a few weeks ago about using satellite infrared images to help predict heat from ground stress. Steve Walter: Valerie - I didn't see that article so I can't comment on such a short-term prediction method . . . Steve Walter: A question to pose: which is more useful- long term probability or short-term prediction? Amy Sebring: Bob next please. Bob Robinson: Does the private sector have access to ShakeMap, and if so, how? Also I would vote for long term Steve Walter: You bet. Shakemaps are available on our public website as soon as they're produced . . . Steve Walter: usually within 10 or 15 minutes of the event . . . Steve Walter: We do provide a service (Shakecast) for those who want or need to info pushed to them. Amy Sebring: Have you got the link handy Steve? Steve Walter: give me a minute . . . Steve Walter: http://quake.usgs.gov/recent/shaking.html Amy Sebring: Thanks. Steve R. next please. Steve Reinbrecht: Do you have a ground-shaking hazards map for Europe that includes Turkey and Iceland? Amy Sebring: ? Steve Reinbrecht: Sorry, first time. Steve Walter: USGS doesn't as far as I know. . . Steve Reinbrecht: Thanks Steve Steve Walter: I believe the seismologists in Europe are using similar methods . . . Steve Walter: to communicate the hazard there. Amy Sebring: (I would argue we need both short term for warning and long term for mitigation.) Did I understand you were integrating data in real time with the HAZUS software? Jennifer Vuitel: ? Amy Sebring: For rapid damage assessments? Steve Walter: HAZUS is an example of where we push the shakemap data . . . Steve Walter: In future quakes, results from HAZUS will be based on the measured . . . Kim West: ? Avagene Moore: ? Steve Walter: shaking intensities from the network as expressed through the shakemap . . . Steve Walter: which is a very big raster file! Amy Sebring: Thanks. Jennifer next please. Jennifer Vuitel: How have local officials embraced the Shakecast (and other) idea? Steve Walter: I know the idea was well received in southern California, where the customers actually pushed us to provide the service . . . Steve Walter: I believe PG&E and Caltrans are two of our customers here in the Bay Area. . . Steve Walter: I can get back to you later if you need a more complete list. Amy Sebring: Kim next please. Kim West: I am in Southwest Wyoming about 250 miles south of Yellowstone and wonder what information you have about this area and shake maps for areas other than Yellowstone. Steve Walter: Kim- Steve Walter: shakemaps are dependent on having a dense network of seismometers . . . Steve Walter: so until ANSS is fully installed, shakemaps won't be available automatically . . . Steve Walter: in most parts of the country. . . Steve Walter: On the other hand, shakemaps can be approximated from knowledge . . . Steve Walter: of the rupture paramters following the event. It just won't be as timely as the shakemap system I described above. Amy Sebring: Ava next please. Avagene Moore: Steve, as I said earlier, I am from Middle Tennessee. I am as close as I want to be to the New Madrid threat. It has been nearly 200 years since that fault created Reelfoot Lake, etc. What is the appropriate stance to take re: the New Madrid? How aggressive should TN and the other CUSEC States be in their mitigation, preparedness and public information? Avagene Moore: CUSEC - Central US Earthquake Consortium. Amy Sebring: (other questions/comments? you can entery your question mark at any time) Steve Walter: Ava- as I recall, New Madrid has a repeat time (based on paleoseismology) or about 400 to 600 years. . . Steve Reinbrecht: ? Steve Walter: trouble is, quakes don't always adhere to the average. . . Valerie Quigley: ? Steve Walter: Certainly construction standards should reflect the possibility of a quake next year, not next century . . . Steve Walter: as to whether a home owner should have EQ insurance, that's always a question of personal comfort. . . Steve Walter: Certainly, the information about the risk should be widely available. Amy Sebring: Steve R. next please. Bob Robinson: ? Amy Sebring: (if your question is long steve, please break it up) Steve Reinbrecht: Steve - your USGS web site is very helpful. The site has opened up the eyes of my senior management. Steve Walter: Thanks Steve . . . Steve Walter: I do think the website, being updated almost immediately after an Steve Walter: earthquake, is about the best information we can provide . . . Steve Walter: and I want to point out that, since earlier this year, the updated maps . . . Steve Walter: have been available for the whole country, not just the west coast. . . Steve Walter: "Did You Feel it?" maps too I believe. Amy Sebring: Valerie next please. Valerie Quigley: Sorry to go back to the prediction stuff. I was trying to find a link. Don't know where I read it, but I did find this. So, if you all get a chance, take a look at this website: http://ikfia.ysn.ru/IUGG%202003/abst/jsa10/010996-1.html It is a IUGG abstract of some research from China called: A DISCUSSION OF THERMAL PROCESS AROUND STRONG EARTHQUAKES BY USING SATELLITE INFRARED. I just thought it was an interesting approach. I think we should be concentrating on both methods. Certainly, sit Amy Sebring: ? Valerie Quigley: Certainly, sitting here in Berkeley on the Hayward Fault, we want to consider all options!! Amy Sebring: Thanks Valerie. Bob next please. Steve Walter: No question that if a method shows promise, it will rise to the top in the proposal/funding cycle. Bob Robinson: Re: Predictions, to be honest the 30 year window of the current prediction for the SF Bay Area (65% chance of a 6.9 or better in the next 30 years) is a hard sell in much of the private sector, it's just too wide a time frame. Where are we in terms of 10-15 year prediction windows, or even shorter? Steve Walter: Bob- the 30 year window was chosen because it's a time span most folks with home mortgages can relate to . . . Steve Walter: on the other hand, the statistics can be cast in any time frame you chose . . . Steve Walter: 65% in 30 years translates into about 32% in 15 years . . . Steve Walter: What's probably most needed is additional info on previous big events that will . . . Steve Walter: allow us to better know the recurrence interval and have more Steve Walter: confidence in the probability. . . Isabel McCurdy: ? Steve Walter: Short term prediction I'm afraid remains elusive until some new insight . . . Steve Walter: perhaps infrared signals such as this abstract suggests, . . . Steve Walter: perhaps a tectonic signature seen in a closely spaced GPS grid, . . . Avagene Moore: ? Steve Walter: or perhaps emission of ultra-low frequency radio emissions as may have been emitted prior to Loma Prieta in 1989 . . . Steve Walter: Keep an open mind and measure everything you can think of might be the best approach. Amy Sebring: Steve, I would think that the site is also useful in providing accurate info to the media, and hence to the general public. What has your experience been in this regard? Steve Walter: I agree. I now get calls from the media about events they noticed on the website that didn't even set off our response alarms. . . Steve Walter: The downside is that there's sometimes an over-reaction to an event that really isn't significant . . . Steve Walter: but it's all part of an education process, both for the public and for us . . . Steve Walter: What we're hoping to see in the next few years is for the press and the public . . . Steve Walter: to develop an understanding of Shakemap, since this really describes the effects of the earthquake . . . Steve Walter: much better than the epicenter map can. . . Turning on the news and . . . Steve Walter: seeing the earthquake represented as a shakemap (perhaps in the 3D terrane view the weatherman uses) . . . Steve Walter: will be a more useful way of conveying how important a given quake was . . . Steve Walter: We need the public to understand that blue and green are ho-hum . . . Steve Walter: don't get excited until you start seeing yellows & oranges . . . Steve Walter: We're considering producing video clips that show the level of shaking (say in a kitchen) for Yellow (intensity 7). Amy Sebring: Isabel next please. Isabel McCurdy: Steve- Since I live in the land of earthquake country on the west coast of Canada I was wondering if on the hazard map the earthquake colour code bar is a standard ? Steve Walter: We standardized on the color code for the US just a couple years ago but . . . Steve Walter: it makes such intrinsic sense to use red for strong,blue for weak, yellow for intermediate . . . Burt Wallrich: ? Steve Walter: that I would hope other people would adopt this standard, if they haven't already. I think the folks at the science center in BC are adopting some of these techniques. Amy Sebring: Avagene, next please. Avagene Moore: Does the USGS have educational materials available in hardcopy as well as online for a community's EQ awareness campaign? If hardcopies are available, how would one get them? Amy Sebring: (Burt will be the last) Steve Walter: EQ pamphlets have been produced specific to San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Eureka . . . Steve Walter: they were included as suplements in the Sunday papers . . . Steve Walter: more generic information on earthquakes can be obtained Steve Walter: through the Earth Science Information Centers (ESICs) at any USGS center . . . Steve Walter: ie. Denver, Menlo Park, Reston. . . . Steve Walter: I think you can find reference on the USGS web site to all our publications. Amy Sebring: Burt, last question/comment please. Burt Wallrich: Comment: I am one of the estimated 1/3 of men with some degree of color-blindness. It is always helpful to have text to supplement color coding. Steve Walter: Burt - one of our seismologists has red-green color blindness and I believe he was consulted in chosing the colors used here. . . . Steve Walter: I admit I haven't asked him how easily he can read the Shakemaps. Burt Wallrich: OK. Thanks. Amy Sebring: That's all we have time for today. Thank you very much Steve for your time and effort. You did a great job. I would also like to thank Kathleen Gohn at the USGS for helping to arrange today's session. Please stand by a moment while we make some quick announcements .... Amy Sebring: If you are not currently on our mailing list, and would like to get program announcements and notices of transcript availability, please see the Subscribe link on our home page. Amy Sebring: Again, the transcript will be posted later this afternoon and you will be able to access it from our home page or the background page. Amy Sebring: If your organization is interested in becoming an EIIP Partner, please see the Partnership link on our home page. Amy Sebring: Thanks to everyone for participating today. Our session is adjourned but before you go, please help me show our appreciation to Steve for a fine job.