Virtual Forum Presentation
December 13, 2000 -- 12:00 Noon Eastern Time

Effective Disaster Warnings
Report by the Working Group on Natural Disaster Information Systems

Peter Ward, Ph. D.
Working Group Chairman
Working Group on Natural Disaster Information Systems
Subcommittee on Natural Disaster Reduction
Committee on Environment and Natural Resources
National Science and Technology Council

SUMMARY

EIIP Virtual Forum Presentation
Wednesday - December 13, 2000 - 12:00 Noon EST

Effective Disaster Warnings
Report by Working Group on Natural Disaster Information Systems

Peter Ward
Chair, Working Group on Natural Disaster Information Systems
Subcommittee on Natural Disaster Reduction

Avagene Moore - Moderator
EIIP Coordinator

The last EIIP Virtual Forum discussion for the Year 2000 was an overview of a report by the Working Group on Natural Disaster Information Systems on Effective Disaster Warnings. The guest speaker was Peter Ward, Ph. D., who chaired the Working Group for the Subcommittee on Natural Disaster Reduction, Committee on Environment and Natural Resources, for the National Science and Technology Council.

Dr. Ward stated although the US has many warning systems, few excel at warning just the people at risk and few actually reach many people unless the time lead is measured in days. New technology that is in place could significantly improve the delivery of early warnings. For these and other disaster-related reasons, the Sub-Committee on Natural Disaster Reduction (SNDR) appointed a working group on Natural Disaster Information Systems (NDIS). The discussion covered the Working Group's findings and recommendations.

PETER L. WARD, Ph. D.
Chairman
Working Group on Natural Disaster Information System

EDUCATION:
B.A. (Geology), Dartmouth College, 1965
M.A. (Seismology), Columbia University, 1967
Ph. D. (Seismology), Columbia University, 1970

POSITIONS HELD:

• Research Geophysicist, U. S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA 94025, 1971-1998
• Leader, Working Group on Research on Earthquakes and Crustal Movements in Volcanic Regions, International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior, 1973-77
• Chief, Branch of Seismology and Branch of Earthquake Mechanics and Prediction, U.S. Geological Survey, 1975-77
• Coordinator, Earthquake Prediction Program, 1977-79
• Member, Disaster Information Task Force requested by Vice President Gore to determine the feasibility of a Global Disaster Information Network, 1997-98
• Chairman, Working Group on Natural Disaster Information Systems, the White House, 1997-1998

SEISMOLOGICAL CONTRIBUTIONS:
(1) Pioneered portable seismic-recorders and microearthquake studies for understanding regional tectonics and geothermal areas
(2) Developed prototype global volcano surveillance system counting earthquakes and measuring tilt on volcanoes from Costa Rica to Alaska, relaying data daily via the ERTS-1 satellite
(3) Monitored earthquakes around active volcanoes in Alaska, Washington, Oregon, California, Hawaii, Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Iceland
(4) Major leadership role in selling and managing a tripling in funding for the U.S. Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, 1975-1978
(5) Developed new approaches to public education for earthquake hazards
(6) Compiled massive data sets on the relationship between plate tectonics and the geology of western North America since the Triassic and discovered a basic cyclicity

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TEXT OF REPORT COVER LETTER

THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON

August 2000

Dear Colleague:

I am pleased to transmit the NSTC Report, Effective Disaster Warnings, which has been prepared by the Working Group on Natural Disaster Information Systems under the Committee on Environment and Natural Resources (CENR) Subcommittee on Natural Disaster Reduction. This document compiles into a single reference a wealth of information on public and private sector R&D capability to provide early warning of natural or technological hazards that threaten the safety and well-being of our citizens. It is designed to assist scientists, engineers, and emergency managers in developing more accurate and more numerous warnings as they deploy better sensors to measure key variables, employ better dynamic models, and expand their understanding of the causes of disasters. Warnings are becoming much more useful to society as lead-time and reliability are improved and as society devises ways to respond effectively.

The goal of this Report is to provide a broad overview of major issues related to warning the right people at the right time so that they can take appropriate action with respect to the disaster. It addresses the problems of delivering warnings reliably to only those people at risk and to systems that have been preprogrammed to respond to early warnings. Although the technology presently exists to build smart receivers to customize warnings to the users’ local situation whether at home, at work, outdoors, or in their cars, substantial improvement can be made with better utilization of emerging opportunities provided by existing and new technologies. Current warnings can target those at risk at the county and sub-county levels and it should also be possible to customize the information for trucks, trains, boats, and airplanes. One high priority that needs to be addressed concerns agreeing on data/information standards and dissemination systems to be used.

This Report focuses on needs for improving delivery and effectiveness of warnings over the next 5 to 10 years. It recommends close collaboration between Federal, State, local, and private sector organizations to leverage government and industry capabilities and needs to deliver effective disaster warnings.

We hope that scientists, engineers, and emergency managers will find this Report to be a valuable reference on the policy issues of implementing advanced technologies for delivering warnings to people at risk.

Sincerely,
Neal Lane
Assistant to the President
for Science and Technology

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