12:03:52 PM Avagene Moore:Welcome to the Virtual Forum --- we are doing our Library presentation from the Virtual Forum room today! ... 12:04:01 PM Avagene Moore:Our speaker today is Claire Rubin, Claire B. Rubin & Associates, Arlington, Virginia. ... 12:04:14 PM Avagene Moore:Claire is a social scientist and an independent consultant in the field of emergency management. ... 12:04:32 PM Avagene Moore:Her work includes basic and applied research; the development and conduct of training programs; ... 12:04:44 PM Avagene Moore:and the creation and operation of various information dissemination and utilization efforts regarding natural hazards and disasters. ... 12:05:01 PM Avagene Moore:From 1993 to present, she has been a consultant to the US Environmental Protection Agency, Chemical Emergency Preparedness and Prevention Office. ... 12:05:14 PM Avagene Moore:Claire was recently appointed Adjunct Assistant Professor at the Institute for Crisis, Disaster, and Risk Management at The George Washington University where she will teaching this fall. ... 12:05:30 PM Avagene Moore:We are pleased to have Claire with us today; Claire is also a Partner in the EIIP and a very active one. ... 12:05:42 PM Avagene Moore:After Claire presents her paper, "What Hazards and Disasters are Likely in the 21st Century - or Sooner?", we will open the discussion for questions from the audience. ... 12:06:04 PM Avagene Moore:And now, it is my pleasure to present our author and speaker today --- Claire Rubin. 12:06:08 PM cbrubin:Ihave been thinkg about the new threats and hazards that emergency managers face for maore than a year. I plan to continue working on this topic and would appreciate feedback, today or at a future time.... 12:07:09 PM cbrubin: Whether or not future disaster events are bigger or worse than what we have seen to date, they are likely to be more complex and require more sophistication indealing with response and recovery 12:07:58 PM cbrubin:Although emergency mangers at all levels may think they do not have time for " futurist" thinking, failure to think ahead could mean some short sighted planing , resource allocation, and hiring decisions... 12:08:24 PM cbrubin:More positively, you may want to show this paper to your supervisor and say the coming workload warrants a big raise! 12:08:46 PM cbrubin:We cannot wait until the 21st Century to take action. 12:09:32 PM cbrubin:In case anyone thinks that people responsible for crisis and disasters are likely to be bored froam routine work, recently we have seen an extraordinary natural disaster... 12:09:47 PM cbrubin:El Nini, and some extraordinary man-made ones too. 12:10:31 PM cbrubin:Example include the fualure of the comm;unications satellite that was the basis for service for 90% of the pagers in the U.S. and the two simulataneious boings of American Embassies in Africa. 12:10:49 PM cbrubin:Slide #1 please 12:10:51 PM Avagene Moore:http://www.emforum.org/vlibrary/cr001.htm 12:11:15 PM cbrubin:Slide 1 is a brief list of the types of new hazards and disaster that are likely 12:11:56 PM cbrubin:These hazards/disasters are not so much new as compouns of several elements or more complex versions of what we have seen to date.... 12:12:19 PM cbrubin:This is not meant to be an exhaustive list, but an attempt to cateforize the types of hazards and threats we are facing... 12:12:31 PM cbrubin:Slide #2 please 12:12:32 PM Avagene Moore:http://www.emforum.org/vlibrary/cr002.htm 12:13:02 PM Avagene Moore:(click on the URL and the slide will come up in your browser window) 12:13:14 PM cbrubin:Slide 2 deals with the challenges to existing organizations and plans, noting that new organizational forms will be needed as well as new means of communication 12:13:48 PM cbrubin:and of collaboration. Some of the types of new technology are espected to be essential in the near 12:14:28 PM cbrubin:future -- such as telecommunications. use of the Internet, and exchanges 12:15:10 PM cbrubin:among experiencesd specialists -- are being demonstrated by EIIP. I cannot emphasis enought that new methods and techniques are going to be essential rather than "nice" to have... 12:15:22 PM cbrubin:Why focus on organizations? 12:15:54 PM cbrubin:Almost every major disaster event that has occurred in the US , such as Exxon Valdez, Hurrican Andrew-- had lead to 12:16:09 PM cbrubin:a flurry of post-mortems and analyses about what went wrong... 12:16:35 PM cbrubin:Invariably, there are serious problems with organizational arrangements to deal with a fast-breaking event with catstrophic impacts... 12:16:57 PM louis haeck:do you believe that information warfare is a risk ? Dr Haeck 12:17:15 PM cbrubin:One key issue before us is: Can the emergency management community (practitioners, researchers, and others) antidicpate some of the likely needs and problems and work to head them off?... 12:17:36 PM cbrubin:Slide 3 please,... 12:17:38 PM Avagene Moore:http://www.emforum.org/vlibrary/cr003.htm 12:17:58 PM cbrubin:Slide 3 suggests some of the avenues for new thinking about emergency management in the next decade... 12:18:24 PM cbrubin:Here is where I would truly appreciate some comments, reactions, and suggestions.... 12:19:12 PM cbrubin:It is a relatively easy matter to add to the list of threats. But I would especially like to have feedback on the items highlighted in slides 1 and 2... 12:19:24 PM cbrubin:Your comments, questions etc. are invited. 12:19:44 PM Avagene Moore:Before we entertain your questions, a reminder .... 12:19:59 PM Avagene Moore:To keep order in the Virtual Library, please indicate you have a question or comment by typing in a question mark (?); please compose your question and wait to be recognized before sending it to our speaker. ... 12:20:33 PM Avagene Moore:Claire, your topic is of great interest. First question please. Dr Haeck, you have a question, I believe. 12:21:10 PM louis haeck:yes about information warfare it a real risk or not ? Louis 12:21:42 PM cbrubin:Yes. There are both offensive and defensive use issues. 12:22:21 PM Amy Sebring:? 12:22:27 PM Avagene Moore:Amy 12:22:41 PM Amy Sebring:How serious do you think Y2K will be and should emergency management get itself involved? 12:23:05 PM cbrubin:I think it will be very serious. Yes emergency managers should get involved... 12:23:32 PM cbrubin:Art Botterel has pointed out that for once we know when the disaster will be but not the outcomes. 12:23:53 PM Avagene Moore:Other questions? 12:24:14 PM Russell Coile:? 12:24:20 PM Avagene Moore:Russell. 12:24:28 PM Amy Sebring:? 12:25:27 PM Russell Coile:Since Auckland,NZ power problems, aren' the utility companies really working on this sort of problem? 12:26:15 PM cbrubin:I am not sure about the utility companies. Also, I do not know many details about Aukland, but a month or so without power for the CBD was quite serious. 12:26:24 PM Avagene Moore:Amy, your question, please. 12:26:30 PM Amy Sebring:We have previously done a session regarding the aging of the baby boomers. Don't you think this will also present a challenge in the future? 12:26:50 PM cbrubin:I am not sure which aspects you mean. 12:26:50 PM annwillis:? 12:27:15 PM Amy Sebring:There will be great growth in the number of frail elderly. 12:27:23 PM Amy Sebring:80+ also 12:27:37 PM Amy Sebring:I don't think we are looking ahead to that very well. 12:27:48 PM cbrubin:Health care and evacuation-related problems will be severe. 12:27:59 PM Avagene Moore:Ann, submit your question, please. 12:28:04 PM annwillis:What do you think the role of the Fed. government should be in preparing EM organizations to meet the future? OR should it even have a role? 12:28:17 PM cbrubin:Several counties in FL have already dealt with large scale evacuations of elderly. 12:28:56 PM cbrubin:I think FEMA, EPA and others should have a role. I would like to see them do more future thinking; I think that is not happening to a great extent now. 12:29:53 PM Wayne Blanchard:? 12:29:53 PM Avagene Moore:Don't be shy, folks. Do you have a question for Claire? 12:30:00 PM Avagene Moore:Wayne. 12:31:03 PM Wayne Blanchard:Just want to note my disagreement that FEMA is not engaged in future thinking.to a great extent -- that is what Project Impact is all about. 12:31:46 PM cbrubin:Project Impact is fine, as far as it goes; but I see many other areas -- especially for tech hazards and cyber threats. 12:31:56 PM louis haeck:sorry for my canadian ignorance but what is the Project impact about ? Louis 12:32:08 PM cbrubin:Go ahead Wayne. 12:32:11 PM Wayne Blanchard:? 12:32:33 PM Avagene Moore:Claire, you indicated you needed and welcomed some input on certain points. Would you like to be more specific and give our audience a chance to reply to your request? 12:32:38 PM Avagene Moore:Wayne. 12:32:45 PM Wayne Blanchard:Project Impact is about building disaster resistent communities... 12:32:59 PM cbrubin:I would like to know if you have some thoughts on organizational needs... 12:33:21 PM cbrubin:Also, I wonder if people would comment on some of the suggestions in Slide 3. 12:33:28 PM Wayne Blanchard:And, building disaster resistent communities means a focus on all hazards that threaten a community... 12:33:50 PM Russell Coile:? 12:34:14 PM Wayne Blanchard:And it also means getting the community as a whole involved in a changeed way of thinking about hazards and one's own role in reducing risks. 12:34:33 PM Avagene Moore:As a reminder while Russell is composing his question, slide 3 http://www.emforum.org/vlibrary/cr003.htm 12:34:42 PM Avagene Moore:Russell. 12:34:53 PM Amy Sebring:? 12:35:21 PM Russell Coile:The President's Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection is one effort to address info warfarwe (see www.pccip.gov) 12:35:51 PM Avagene Moore:Amy. 12:35:53 PM Amy Sebring:I certainly favor a multi-institutional regional approach, and believe technology can help make that happen, but it is not easy. 12:36:26 PM Avagene Moore:Other questions or comments? 12:36:29 PM cbrubin:I do not know too much about the warfare concerns. Another useful web site for critical infrastructure info is . 12:36:49 PM Amy Sebring:www.ciao.gov 12:37:07 PM cbrubin:I agree: multi-institutional and multi- disciplinary efforts are hard to do. 12:37:14 PM Avagene Moore:Thanks for the site references, Russell and Claire. (Also Amy.) 12:38:29 PM Avagene Moore:Claire, in your opinion, why are the multi-type efforts so difficult? You have worked with and for several agencies. 12:39:27 PM cbrubin:Regarding tech hazards, for example, cooperation is needed from EPA and FEMA as well as others, like the Public Health Service and CDC. The response to hazardous substances is a complex response situation. 12:39:50 PM Kevin Farrell:? 12:39:54 PM Avagene Moore:Kevin. 12:40:11 PM Amy Sebring:CDC=? 12:40:38 PM cbrubin:Center for Cummunicable Diseases 12:40:57 PM Andre LeDuc:I am looking for examples of disaster response policies for shared governance within a state infrastructure . If any one has any leads it would be appreciated. Thanks 12:41:21 PM cbrubin:Could you clarify that please. 12:41:33 PM Bill Feist:Amy. CDC=Center for Disease Control 12:41:56 PM cbrubin:Thanks, Bill 12:42:49 PM cbrubin:Andre,could you say more about the need you mentioned? 12:43:26 PM Kevin Farrell:Claire, on a more basic level... EM must work with police, fire, and ems response elements. Due to their different organizational structures, many times priorities are different. Is that what is meant by "Regional and Bilateral organizational arrangements" in your slide, and if so, have you had successes there? 12:44:36 PM cbrubin:I was thinking about subnational ( multi-state earthquake consortia) and national (US/Canada and US/Mexico arrangements. 12:45:18 PM Andre LeDuc:Clarification: I currently writing a disaster response plan for State controller s division in Oregon. We are developing partnerships between agencies for shared resources in the event of a disaster and I a looking for examples if they exist. 12:45:19 PM cbrubin:There are some successful organizations of these types in place. Plus, in New England all the states have banded together for form a NE emergency management organization. 12:45:41 PM Amy Sebring:Kevin can speak from experience about some of the challenges of multi-lateral arrangements! 12:45:58 PM Amy Sebring:How is the NE consortium working Claire, do you know? 12:46:43 PM HeidiKramer:? 12:46:59 PM cbrubin:I do not know how effective it is, but the concept is interesting. Elsewhere in the US there are several regional (multi-state) earthquake organizations. 12:47:18 PM Amy Sebring:Heidi, your question/comment. 12:47:37 PM HeidiKramer:Are you including organizations outside of traditional em such as those that service at-risk populations? 12:48:04 PM cbrubin:I am not quite sure who you mean? 12:48:24 PM Amy Sebring:I believe Heidi is referring to NGO's, CBO's... 12:48:24 PM Russell Coile:? 12:48:35 PM Amy Sebring:non-bovernmental orgs, community based orgs. 12:48:42 PM HeidiKramer:Disability support organiztions with resources such as lift equipped tranpsort, etc 12:48:50 PM cbrubin:I know what NGOs are but not CBOs. 12:49:30 PM cbrubin:I guess I have not thought it through enough , but many organizations play a key role besides public emergency management agencies. 12:49:38 PM Amy Sebring:Russell. 12:49:53 PM Bill Feist:Amy. Thanks for automatically explaining your acronyms. 12:50:04 PM Greg Shaw:? 12:51:11 PM cbrubin:Greg, your question. 12:51:22 PM Amy Sebring:Still waiting for Russell Claire. 12:51:47 PM Greg Shaw:I would think that private industry has a key role in emergency management partnerships. Do you have any examples of this and do you know of any states or localities that have provided incentives to obtain the cooperation of the private sector? 12:52:53 PM cbrubin:In CA many initiatives with the private sector have occurred. The question of incentives is a good one. Especially inthe seismic safety area, all to few incentives exist . 12:53:14 PM cindy rice:? 12:53:22 PM Bill Feist:I have a reply to Greg's question. 12:53:23 PM Amy Sebring:NY is also doing a statewide effort. 12:53:41 PM Amy Sebring:Jump in there Bill, and then we will have time for Cindy's question. 12:54:13 PM BurtWallrich:? 12:54:16 PM cindy rice:KY and insurance companies are working together in flood insurance/plain matters and support even to helping em public information. 12:54:20 PM Bill Feist:Thanks. Greg, in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area we have 12:54:21 PM Amy Sebring:Also Project Impact is based in large part on cooperation from business. 12:54:52 PM Bill Feist:at least two groups called CAER groups or Community Awareness and Emergency Response groups. 12:55:12 PM cindy rice:? 12:55:16 PM Bill Feist:These groups are comprised of many different organizations and agencies that 12:55:16 PM Amy Sebring:Thanks Bill, Cindy. 12:55:20 PM cbrubin:Plus the Institute for Home and Building Safety, a insurance industry association, has done a great deal. 12:55:35 PM Bill Feist:would respond in the event of an emergency within a specific geographical area. 12:55:36 PM cindy rice:would that also cover citizens advisory groups 12:55:49 PM Amy Sebring:It's about time to wrap of the scheduled portion of our session... 12:56:02 PM Amy Sebring:I would like to thank Claire for taking the time to be here today. 12:56:08 PM Bill Feist:Those groups include government EM's, fire, LE, private industry that either has a role 12:56:10 PM cbrubin:Thanks to you all. 12:56:31 PM Amy Sebring:Please note that the banner above that references Background Info... 12:56:33 PM Bill Feist:in response or might be the source of an emergency, as well as non-profits 12:56:46 PM Amy Sebring:will take you to a page where you can find the link... 12:56:51 PM Bill Feist:like The Salvation Army and American Red Cross. 12:56:59 PM Amy Sebring:to Claire's original paper. 12:57:13 PM Bill Feist:The idea is to get all of these entities working together in exercises and actual emergencies. 12:57:28 PM Amy Sebring:It is #99 on the Natural Hazards Working Paper Series. 12:57:41 PM Amy Sebring:Claire, would you like to give an email for further feedback? 12:57:51 PM cbrubin:cbrubin@aol.com 12:58:04 PM Amy Sebring:That concludes our scheduled portion... 12:58:10 PM Bill Feist:There is a similar group in Minot, North Dakota called the Minot Area Emergency Resource Council. 12:58:18 PM Amy Sebring:however, you are welcome to stick around for a few minutes longer... 12:58:32 PM Amy Sebring:for informal discussion. 12:58:40 PM Bill Feist:If you want more information, feel free to e- mail me at twin_city_salvation_army_eds@ibm.net 12:58:48 PM Amy Sebring:Good job Claire. 12:58:54 PM Amy Sebring: 12:58:57 PM cbrubin:Thanks 12:59:01 PM Amy Sebring:Ok, NOW Bill. 12:59:07 PM Kevin Farrell: 12:59:18 PM Isabel McCurdy:Excelent presentation. 12:59:32 PM annwillis:Good presentation Claire 01:00:00 PM Bill Feist:Oops. I think I walked all over you. Sorry. And, yes, it was a good presentation, Claire. Thanks. 01:00:01 PM Greg Shaw:Thanks Claire. 01:00:32 PM Amy Sebring:That's OK Bill, Isabel will just have to clean it up in the transcript! 01:01:00 PM Amy Sebring:We will have a transcript of this session with links to slides next week. 01:01:29 PM Amy Sebring:We didn't even talk about Global Warming Claire... 01:01:35 PM Russell Coile:California implemented a new Standardized Emergenc Management System 01:01:44 PM Amy Sebring:I understand FL will be underwater when the oceans rise! 01:01:54 PM cbrubin:That definitely is a major topic. 01:02:18 PM cbrubin:New Orleans will be underwater too. 01:02:19 PM Isabel McCurdy:Russell, more info, please. 01:02:20 PM Amy Sebring:So will half of Texas I suppose! 01:02:40 PM cbrubin:Sorry Russell, what info do you want. 01:02:41 PM Amy Sebring:Isabel, Russell has a paper in our Library on SEMS. 01:02:58 PM Amy Sebring:How about comets? 01:03:01 PM Isabel McCurdy:Thanks. 01:03:15 PM Amy Sebring:I heard that if we had spent the money on searching for comets... 01:03:28 PM Amy Sebring:that was spent on the movies, we would have them all identified! 01:03:55 PM cbrubin:If I add to many wild ideas tothe paper, people will dismiss it as science fiction! 01:04:10 PM Amy Sebring:Seriously, I have also heard some alarmists regarding new diseases, epidemics. 01:04:42 PM cbrubin:Actually, El Nino has had many health and disease outcomes; they are serious. 01:06:23 PM Russell Coile:which ordinates resources of the 32 million people in CA 01:06:59 PM Amy Sebring:There seems to be a territorial aspect of human nature, that constantly presents challenges to multi- lateralism. 01:07:53 PM cbrubin:Yes, but if we don't start thinking bigger and thinking in terms of getting help from others, emergency managers will get swamped and people will be harmed. 01:08:04 PM Amy Sebring:Wouldn't you agree Kevin. (no details please) 01:08:34 PM Amy Sebring:In coping with disasters, there is more than enough work to go around... 01:08:37 PM Kevin Farrell:yes I do! 01:08:56 PM Amy Sebring:however, funding is very limited, and "we" have to compete for it. 01:09:11 PM cindy rice:? 01:09:12 PM Amy Sebring:Especially pre-disaster funding. 01:09:28 PM Amy Sebring:Go ahead Cindy, you don't need to use question mark anymore. 01:09:33 PM Kevin Farrell:what funding? Oh, you mean "reactionary spending"! 01:09:52 PM cindy rice:we may have to compete or we may coordinate and collaborate like we're doing here and have less of the re- inventing the wheel 01:10:14 PM cbrubin:IWhere is it you are succeeded? 01:10:20 PM Amy Sebring:Yes, there are definitely economies and efficiencies to be realized. 01:10:21 PM Kevin Farrell:yes, I liked the last line in slide #2 01:10:47 PM Amy Sebring:Yes, me too Kevin! 01:10:57 PM Amy Sebring:Kevin is referring to the nice plug for EIIP. 01:11:02 PM Amy Sebring:Thanks Claire. 01:11:27 PM Amy Sebring:Well, I am going to go get my lunch as usual. 01:11:37 PM Amy Sebring:Thank you all for being here with us today. 01:11:47 PM cbrubin:Thanks again. 01:12:04 PM Kevin Farrell:I'm going to get back to pounding out a report.... see ya next time!