12:03:56 PM Amy Sebring:On behalf of the EIIP, I am pleased to welcome you to a special event in our Library. 12:04:05 PM Amy Sebring:Please hold all questions and comments until we get to the Q&A portion of the program about half past the hour. We will review the instructions at that time. 12:04:17 PM Amy Sebring:Before I introduce our special guest, I would like to review how to use links to display Web pages in another browser window for the benefit of our newcomers. 12:04:30 PM Amy Sebring:When a full URL is typed in the message area, it becomes a hot link, so you can just click on it, and a webpage will display in another browser window. 12:04:40 PM Amy Sebring:http://www.emforum.org/vlibrary/dow/dow01.htm 12:04:51 PM Amy Sebring:And now, it is my pleasure to introduce Dr. Kirstin Dow, Associate Professor, Dept. of Geography, University of South Carolina at Columbia ... 12:05:09 PM Kirstin Dow:Hello 12:05:20 PM Amy Sebring:Dr. Dow is coauthor, with Dr. Susan Cutter, of the paper "Repeat Response to Hurricane Evacuation Orders," and will be sharing their research findings. 12:05:33 PM Amy Sebring:Thank you so much for being with us today Kirstin. 12:05:53 PM Kirstin Dow:I'm gald to be hear and looking forward to hearing your comments. 12:06:30 PM Kirstin Dow:The research I am going to discuss today, "Crying Wolf: Repeat Response 12:06:43 PM Kirstin Dow: 12:06:56 PM Kirstin Dow:to Hurricane Evacuation Warnings" was supported by the Natural Hazards 12:07:08 PM Kirstin Dow: 12:07:21 PM Kirstin Dow:Sorry, some technical difficulties ... 12:07:32 PM Kirstin Dow:was supported by the Natural Hazards 12:07:44 PM Kirstin Dow:Information and Applications Center, Quick Response Grant Program. 12:07:53 PM Kirstin Dow:The project report is available at their home page and the paper this 12:08:05 PM Kirstin Dow:talk is based on, a piece of that research, is forthcoming in Coastal 12:08:13 PM Kirstin Dow:Management 12:08:32 PM Kirstin Dow:In 1996 two hurricanes Bertha and Fran both prompted evacuations of the 12:09:04 PM Kirstin Dow:South Carolina coast. Storm tracks showed both storms approaching SC, 12:09:13 PM Kirstin Dow:they both made landfall in North Carolina. 12:09:22 PM Kirstin Dow: Slide 2 please. 12:09:25 PM Amy Sebring:http://www.emforum.org/vlibrary/dow/dow02.htm 12:09:39 PM Kirstin Dow:Based on the forecasts, the Governor of SC ordered almost identical 12:09:49 PM Kirstin Dow:evacuations for both hurricanes -- covering all of coastal South 12:09:58 PM Kirstin Dow:Carolina. (Areas east of the intercoastal waterway, all barrier 12:10:08 PM Kirstin Dow:islands, all beachfront properties, all low- lying areas, and all 12:10:29 PM Kirstin Dow:While the evacuations were the prudent action, the impact of false 12:10:40 PM Kirstin Dow:alarms on future evacuations, often referred to as the "crying wolf 12:10:47 PM Kirstin Dow:syndrome" (Breznitz 1984) is a widespread source of speculation and 12:10:53 PM Kirstin Dow:concern in the emergency management community. Hurricane planning 12:11:00 PM Kirstin Dow:issues have become more complicated by influx of new residnets, large 12:11:08 PM Kirstin Dow:seasonal tourist populations, and the general rapid development of 12:11:15 PM Kirstin Dow:coastal areas. 12:11:24 PM Kirstin Dow:Repeated false alarms reduce the credibility of warning information, 12:11:33 PM Kirstin Dow:yet very little research has directly studied them and their impact on 12:11:38 PM Kirstin Dow:evacuation behavior. 12:11:46 PM Kirstin Dow:Using South Carolina as the study area we examined the impact of 12:11:58 PM Kirstin Dow:"crying wolf" through three specific research questions: 12:12:07 PM Kirstin Dow:1) were there differences in evacuation responses of residents for 12:12:15 PM Kirstin Dow:hurricanes Bertha and Fran?; 12:12:31 PM Kirstin Dow:Sorry, I can only send two lines at a time. 12:12:40 PM Kirstin Dow:2) was there an action or a specific piece of information that 12:12:45 PM Kirstin Dow:convinced people to evacuate and did this vary between the two 12:12:50 PM Kirstin Dow:hurricane events?; 12:12:57 PM Kirstin Dow:3) what was the major source of "reliable" information influencing 12:13:07 PM Kirstin Dow:the decisions to evacuate and did this differ in the two hurricane events? 12:13:19 PM Kirstin Dow:Responses to these questions also raised more general issues about the 12:13:26 PM Kirstin Dow:role of local disaster culture and the perceived relationships among 12:13:35 PM Kirstin Dow:residents, government officials at various levels, and information 12:13:41 PM Kirstin Dow:sources such as the Weather Channel. 12:13:51 PM Kirstin Dow:We started from looking at previous findings on hurricane evacuation 12:13:57 PM Kirstin Dow:These findings suggest ... 12:14:05 PM Kirstin Dow:The definition of the risk area and the actions of public officials are 12:14:10 PM Kirstin Dow:the most important variables affecting public response; 12:14:16 PM Kirstin Dow:Over 90% of residents of high-risk barrier islands and open coasts will 12:14:20 PM Kirstin Dow:evacuate in response to strong, clear warnings from officials; 12:14:30 PM Kirstin Dow:General knowledge of hurricanes and hurricane safety are poor 12:14:35 PM Kirstin Dow:predictors of hurricane evacuation behavior; 12:14:41 PM Kirstin Dow:Variation in evacuation is accounted for by the hazardousness of the 12:14:45 PM Kirstin Dow:area, action by public authorities, type of housing, prior perception 12:14:52 PM Kirstin Dow:of personal risk, and storm-specific threat factors (Baker 1991). 12:14:57 PM Kirstin Dow:We conducted a survey of coastal residents ... 12:15:11 PM Kirstin Dow:We were in the field less than 2 weeks afer hurricane Fran, we went to 12:15:19 PM Kirstin Dow:Hilton Head, Myrtle Beach, and Wilmington. I'm going to talk about 12:15:26 PM Kirstin Dow:South Carolina cases today. Both cities are one the coast; Hilton Head 12:15:33 PM Kirstin Dow:is in the south and Myrtle Beach is in the north. 12:15:45 PM Kirstin Dow:We conducted surveys with the help of graduate assistants. 12:15:50 PM Kirstin Dow:We concentrated on residents and completed interviews with 128 people 12:15:57 PM Kirstin Dow:in Hilton Head and 143 in Myrtle Beach; our overallresponse rate was 12:16:02 PM Kirstin Dow:about 75%. However, we did use a screenign question to target 12:16:06 PM Kirstin Dow:residents who were in the area for at least one of the hurricanes. 12:16:12 PM Kirstin Dow:A total of 323 interviews were completed. 12:16:17 PM Kirstin Dow:The surveys were: face to face interviews; held at entry of major 12:16:21 PM Kirstin Dow:grocery/discount stores; comprised of open- ended and closed questions; 12:16:27 PM Kirstin Dow:and, about 5 -10 minutes in length. 12:16:38 PM Kirstin Dow:Findings 12:16:43 PM Kirstin Dow:Evacuation Rates ... 12:16:49 PM Kirstin Dow:Sorenson and Mileti (1988) reviewed a variety of evacuation events 12:16:53 PM Kirstin Dow:(including hurricanes) and found that evacuation rates vary from 32% to 12:16:59 PM Kirstin Dow:98% depending on the level of warning and perception of personal risk. 12:17:04 PM Kirstin Dow:For hurricanes, evacuation rates were around 90-95% in 12:17:13 PM Kirstin Dow:georaphically-defined high risk areas compared to 25-35% in lower-risk areas 12:17:22 PM Kirstin Dow:We did not see those high evacuation rates, we found 42% evacuated for 12:17:28 PM Kirstin Dow:Betha and 60% evacuated for Fran, the stronger storm. 12:17:33 PM Kirstin Dow:Evacuation rates for both events were higher in Hilton Head, the 12:17:42 PM Kirstin Dow:community furthest from landfall. 12:17:46 PM Kirstin Dow:This maybe partially explained by 12:17:50 PM Kirstin Dow:and a single evacuation route off of 12:17:57 PM Kirstin Dow:Responses also show consistancy in evacuation decisions, 76% either 12:18:01 PM Kirstin Dow:evacuted for both storms or stayed for both. 12:18:13 PM Kirstin Dow:Slide 3 please 12:18:18 PM Amy Sebring:http://www.emforum.org/vlibrary/dow/dow03.htm 12:18:44 PM Kirstin Dow:Prior experience did not differentiate among evacuees and non-evacuees 12:18:50 PM Kirstin Dow:as 76% reported that they had dealt with a hurricane threat before. 12:18:56 PM Kirstin Dow:Impact of Crying Wolf ... 12:19:07 PM Kirstin Dow:To understand the evacuation decisions we asked three sets of questions. 12:19:22 PM Kirstin Dow:1) What convinced you to evacuate? (Respondents who evacuated were asked to rank the top three factors that convinced them to leave.); 12:19:30 PM Kirstin Dow:2) Respondents who stayed were asked why they did so; 12:19:40 PM Kirstin Dow:3) Respondents who evacuated for one hurricane and not the other were asked to explain the difference. 12:19:48 PM Kirstin Dow:First Question: What convinced residents to evacuate? 12:19:56 PM Kirstin Dow:Our analysis of the decision-making criteria revealed no dramatic shifts in factors convincing people between Bertha and Fran. 12:20:16 PM Kirstin Dow:Unlike previous evacuation studies, no single factor dominated responses, rather, the residents provided multiple reasons for their decision-making. 12:20:37 PM Kirstin Dow:The ranking of factors suggests less emphasis on advice and warnings from authorities and more reliance on media and assorted household 12:20:58 PM Kirstin Dow:(included in the "other" category). 12:21:11 PM Kirstin Dow:Among those who evacuated, a basic crosstab table of the first (most) important factor in convincing them to leave for Bertha versus 12:21:21 PM Kirstin Dow:that for Fran identified the following tendencies: the Governor’s order and 12:21:33 PM Kirstin Dow:media reports were almost equal in their influence on the decision to evacuate. The Weather Channel was mentioned specifically. 12:21:49 PM Kirstin Dow:The large category of "other" factors included a number of individual or household considerations such as safety of children and household pets. 12:22:00 PM Kirstin Dow:vacation plans, work obligations, and potential flooding. 12:22:08 PM Kirstin Dow:Slide 4 please. 12:22:10 PM Amy Sebring:http://www.emforum.org/vlibrary/dow/dow04.htm 12:22:30 PM Kirstin Dow:Question 2: 2) Among people who did not evacuate ... 12:22:42 PM Kirstin Dow:Reasons given for non-evacuation centered on perceived probability and severity of a "hit" followed by the perception of safety of the housing unit and/or location relative to the danger. Note, there are differences between Hilton Head and Myrtle Beach. 12:23:04 PM Kirstin Dow:Whether they stayed or evacuated, our data suggest that people are considering a wide variety of factors in their decision-making. More so than in previous hurricane evacuation studies, individual evaluation of risks (largely derived from media reports from the Weather hannel) seems to have played a larger role in evacuation decision-making during these two hurricane events. 12:23:16 PM Kirstin Dow:The role of media coverage of storm characteristics and how individuals 12:23:20 PM Kirstin Dow:utilize this information in their personal risk calculations in evacuation decisions is a needed area for research. 12:23:36 PM Kirstin Dow:Slide 5 please. 12:23:38 PM Amy Sebring:http://www.emforum.org/vlibrary/dow/dow05.htm 12:24:02 PM Kirstin Dow:Reliability of Information Sources. 12:24:08 PM Kirstin Dow:In addition to asking what convinced people, we asked them about the reliability of information sources for each hurricane. If "crying wolf" was a major issue, we would have expected to see a drop in reliability. 12:24:20 PM Kirstin Dow:The perceived most reliable source of information was the media. 12:24:26 PM Kirstin Dow:Direct advice from local officials is absent from these reports although residents following the news would have heard their warnings. 12:24:32 PM Kirstin Dow:The percentages of people reporting all types of media as the most reliable increased between the two storms. 12:24:43 PM Kirstin Dow:We were surprised by the specific and frequent mentioning of The Weather Channel as one of the most reliable sources. 12:24:50 PM Kirstin Dow:Despite its importance in convincing people to evacuate, the Governor’s order were not evaluated as the most reliable of source of information about evacuation. 12:25:04 PM Kirstin Dow:The broader response of listening to the media, coupled with specific references to the Weather Channel, again indicated people considered a variety of types of information. 12:25:10 PM Kirstin Dow:Slide 6 Please. 12:25:12 PM Amy Sebring:http://www.emforum.org/vlibrary/dow/dow06.htm 12:25:32 PM Kirstin Dow:These responses highlight a distinction between the "reliability" of information sources and actions and information that "convinced" people to evacuate. The most reliable sources (media) provided data on 12:25:38 PM Kirstin Dow:hurricane characteristics such as magnitude and direction of landfall. Advice or orders from officials sometimes convinced people to evacuate, but the advisories were not reported as particularly reliable. 12:25:50 PM Kirstin Dow:These findings suggest that access to basic data and experts’ evaluations through sources such as the Weather Channel and the Internet, provided a necessary confirmation for a more independent and personally relevant evaluation of hurricane risks by local residents. 12:26:03 PM Kirstin Dow:We also tried to look at the impact of these "unnecessary" evacuations by asking a hypothetical question, "If another hurricane approached the coast, would you evacuate? And why?". 12:26:18 PM Kirstin Dow:While hypothetical questions can pose difficulties, in the context of this discussion, asking residents about future actions was based on their recent, past decision-making in the face of potential danger. 12:26:31 PM Kirstin Dow:The majority of our respondents (48%) answered "it depends" to the question while 21% responded "no." The remaining third said "yes" they would evacuate if another hurricane approached. 12:26:49 PM Kirstin Dow:For those who replied yes, concerns over personal and family safety were paramount. Statements such as "I’m afraid," "better safe than sorry," or "I’d be crazy not to evacuate" illustrate this view. Other respondents gave specific reasons including past experience with hurricanes, and living in a mobile home or near water. Experience with "false alarms" did not seem to sway perception of risk. 12:27:16 PM Kirstin Dow:Among those respondents who replied "no," only a few mentioned they would not evacuate because the last few forecasted hurricanes did not hit their area. Comments included, Government leaders cried wolf too often" and "the last few didn’t hit" as reasons for on-evacuation. 12:27:29 PM Kirstin Dow:The largest group, however, was residents who believed their home was a safe place or at least safer than anywhere else. Others cited job requirements as a reason for staying. There were a few respondents who mentioned concern about being able to return home as a reason for not leaving. The majority of these future non-evacuees (81%) also did not evacuate for either Bertha or Fran. 12:27:47 PM Kirstin Dow:Among the group who said "it depends" they explain that their evacuation decisions would depend on 1)The severity of the storm; 2) Storm path; 3)Probability of a direct hit; 4)Probability of flooding; 5) Less Than 2% would depend on the Governor’s Order or orders from local officials. 12:28:05 PM Kirstin Dow:Based on this research, we have concluded .... 12:28:13 PM Kirstin Dow:1)The influence of "crying wolf" played only a minor role in evacuation decision-making. South Carolina residents anticipate little change in their evacuation behavior, although there is some semblance of an evacuation resistant population forming with almost 1/3 of our residents saying that they would not evacuate under any circumstances. 12:28:23 PM Kirstin Dow:2) "Premature evacuations" did not result in dramatic changes in reasons for evacuation or sources respondents found reliable; ... 12:28:31 PM Kirstin Dow:3) The role of official advisories and orders was limited as people sought a wider variety of information; ... 12:28:38 PM Kirstin Dow:4) Reliance on the media, the Weather Channel in particular, was more pronounced than in previous studies; ... 12:28:57 PM Kirstin Dow:5) Personal assessment of the storm haracteristics and its risk played a larger than anticipated role in evacuation decisions as people considered quality of home construction, family needs and safety, and 12:29:05 PM Kirstin Dow:Amy, I will be happy to take questions now. 12:29:15 PM Amy Sebring:I would like to take a moment here to review how we will handle the Q&A so that we have an orderly session. 12:29:23 PM Amy Sebring:We ask that you indicate that you have a question by typing just a question mark (?). 12:29:29 PM Kirstin Dow:The end of that last sentance was ---data on storm tracks, strength, and probabilities in their decision- making. 12:29:39 PM Amy Sebring:Then you can prepare your question, but PLEASE HOLD (don't hit end or send) your question until you are recognized. 12:29:50 PM Amy Sebring:If we run out of time, you will have a chance to ask Dr. Dow afterward in the follow up session in the Virtual Forum. 12:30:04 PM Amy Sebring:Ok, let's take the first question 12:30:26 PM Kirstin Dow:I have written a feww minutes on implications, but I was slow so, if you are intersted... 12:30:43 PM Kevin Farrell:? 12:30:44 PM Amy Sebring:While we are waiting, does SC have mandatory evacuation law Kirstin? 12:31:11 PM Kirstin Dow:Yes, it does the Governor can order AND compell evacuation in SC 12:31:19 PM Amy Sebring:Kevin 12:31:23 PM Kevin Farrell:Of the people you interviewed, did you ask about whether they sustained significant property damage? 12:31:52 PM Kirstin Dow:There was mostly wind damage in SC... 12:32:00 PM cindy rice:? 12:32:03 PM Kirstin Dow:We did not ask people specifically. 12:32:16 PM Amy Sebring:cindy are you ready? 12:32:47 PM cindy rice:Any idea on how evacuations are perceived in the nursing homes/hospitals, since you couldn't poll them? 12:33:05 PM Kirstin Dow:We did a lot of interviews ... 12:33:59 PM Kirstin Dow:While we didn't do polls of the nursing homes, we did speak with many people who worked in them. They felt like the evacuations were handled well. People generally felt that the evacuations were handled well, 12:34:17 PM Kirstin Dow:they just sometimes didn't feel that the adivce suited them. 12:34:42 PM Terry Storer:? 12:34:53 PM Amy Sebring:Terry 12:36:01 PM Terry Storer:Did the people feel that the Weather Channel was more valid in their expertise than the Gov"s office. 12:36:36 PM Shari Coffin:? 12:36:43 PM Kirstin Dow:The Weather Channel was important .... 12:37:16 PM Kirstin Dow:in people's decision-making it appeared as 12:37:29 PM Kirstin Dow:the single most "reliable" information source... 12:37:33 PM Tom Wahle:? 12:38:21 PM Kirstin Dow:the Governor's office was at about 6-8 % in comparison to 15-18%. 12:38:38 PM Amy Sebring:Shari next please. 12:38:41 PM Shari Coffin:IAEM is commenting on an FCC proposal to prohibit cable overrides for local EAS alertsÉ 12:38:42 PM Kirstin Dow:When we asked people to rank the reilaibale sources. 12:38:54 PM Shari Coffin:Does this have implications on whether that's a good idea? 12:39:33 PM Kirstin Dow:This study has a lot of implications for the way we think about communication... 12:40:02 PM Kirstin Dow:People are discussing two paths in response ... 12:40:46 PM Kirstin Dow:One is to aim for a consistant message and try to get people to focus on one message. ... 12:41:35 PM Kirstin Dow:The other is to provide more infomration so that people are making well informed decisions that take into account the real risks. 12:41:58 PM Amy Sebring:Tom please. 12:42:00 PM Tom Wahle:How would you assess businesses ... Have they been a help or barrier to effective evacuation? 12:42:35 PM Kirstin Dow:The business people I interviewed ... 12:43:11 PM Kirstin Dow:were involved in facilitating evacuation and others were expected to stay at work. .... 12:43:47 PM Kirstin Dow:About 7% of the population did not evacuate becuase of work expectations ... 12:44:00 PM Kirstin Dow:some of these were eergency management related, but ... 12:44:28 PM Kirstin Dow:not all of them were. Some managers, for instance, reported a commitment to the store. 12:44:48 PM Kirstin Dow:I can't tell you about tourism issues unfortunately. 12:45:33 PM Tom Wahle:? 12:45:41 PM Amy Sebring:Tom please 12:45:53 PM Tom Wahle:It seems that business is willing to play along and let people go, right? 12:46:17 PM Kirstin Dow:In general, that is what we heard form people. ... 12:46:43 PM Kirstin Dow:I did many of those interviews and did not hear any complaints about that ... 12:46:57 PM Kirstin Dow:about other things, but not about being required to say. 12:47:13 PM Amy Sebring:Kirstin, were expectations of traffic congestion ever mentioned as a factor? 12:47:41 PM Kirstin Dow:Traffic congestion was a factor ... 12:48:11 PM Kirstin Dow:particularly in Hilton Head. ... 12:48:52 PM Kirstin Dow:There is only one route off of that island and confusion during the Bertha evacuation lead to a large traffic jam. .... 12:49:24 PM Kirstin Dow:Some people decided to wait to leave and eventually it became clear taht the landfall would be much further ntrth, so they did not leave at all. 12:49:51 PM Amy Sebring:We have time for about 1 or 2 more questions. 12:50:09 PM Kirstin Dow:? 12:50:15 PM isabel McCurdy:? 12:50:16 PM Amy Sebring:go ahead Kirstin!\ 12:50:22 PM Amy Sebring:then isabel 12:50:34 PM Terry Storer:? 12:50:46 PM Kirstin Dow:I should let Isabel, go first. I am interested in this groups expericne with internet. 12:51:00 PM Amy Sebring:go ahead isabel and then terry... 12:51:12 PM isabel McCurdy:Any feedback on what advice should be given for evacuation compliance? 12:51:13 PM Amy Sebring:we can talk about Internet in our follow up in the Virtual Forum if you like 12:51:46 PM Kirstin Dow:For evacuation compliance, ... 12:52:02 PM Terry Storer:Would it be fair to say that evacuation decisions remain a personal decision rather than a reaction to public mandate? 12:52:19 PM Kirstin Dow:I am most comcerned about what is starting to look like the formation of an evacuation resistant group. .. 12:53:10 PM Kirstin Dow:About 30 % were not planning to leave under any circumstances, I would focus some attention on those people. 12:53:25 PM Kirstin Dow:As far as decisions, yes ... 12:53:51 PM Kirstin Dow:I think it is more of a personal decision than past research has reported. ... 12:54:31 PM Kirstin Dow:We were also interested in the differences in the ressponse rates between communities .... 12:55:22 PM Kirstin Dow:Hilton Head, the southern one, had higher evacuation rates. ... This led us to wonder about local evacuation response cultures. .... 12:55:40 PM Kirstin Dow:How much difference can we expect among communities and why? 12:55:47 PM Amy Sebring:Thank you very much Kirstin for sharing your work with us today. Transcript will be posted with background material in a few days. 12:56:02 PM Kirstin Dow:Thank you. 12:56:06 PM Amy Sebring:Before we adjourn to the Virtual Forum room for some follow up ... 12:56:20 PM Amy Sebring:I would like Avagene to say a brief word about tomorrow evening. 12:56:24 PM Avagene Moore:Tomorrow night is our first evening discussion called "Mutual Aid". This session will be an open dialogue to encourage emergency professionals to bring any issues or problems they wish to discuss; a time and place where experience and expertise can be shared; and a means of networking with others who have mutual interests and concerns. .... 12:57:08 PM Avagene Moore:Please tune in tomorrow night July 2 at 8 PM EDT. 12:57:16 PM Amy Sebring:Also next week in Virtual Classroom we will feature FEMA's EENet. 12:57:32 PM Amy Sebring:Thank you audience, and since our time is up, we will close down the Library for today, but we will be in the Virtual Forum room for a few minutes longer, and you are welcome to join us there for open discussion. Thank you for your cooperation. 12:57:40 PM Tom Wahle:Thank you. 12:57:47 PM Avagene Moore:On Tuesday, we have a discussion in the Round Table on XII> 12:58:02 PM Avagene Moore:Lois Clark McCoy will lead the discussion.