Dinner Meeting: January 1999

Speaker: Dr. John H. Schuenemeyer
Research Mathematical Statistician, US Geological Survey Professor Emeritus, Geography,
Math Sciences, and Geology
University of Delaware
Title: Oil and Gas Resource Estimation in a Frontier Area of Northern Alaska


The US Geological Survey estimates that between 5.7 and 16.0 billion barrels of technically recoverable oil exists in the 1002 Area of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. The 1002 Area is 1.5 million acres east of Prudhoe Bay on the Arctic Ocean. This is a frontier area, which has not been drilled. Seismic information was available and limited information from nearby exploration. Subjective probability and risking procedures were used to estimate oil and gas resources. Assessors specified distributions of the attributes that constitute oil accumulations and the chance that certain conditions, necessary for the generation of oil, were present. The volume of resources was estimated using Monte Carlo simulation.


Thursday, January, 14, 1999

Social hour -- 5:30 pm
Dinner -- 6:15 pm
Speaker -- 7:00 pm

Newark Holiday Inn
Oliver's Restaurant

Appetizer: Soup du Jour
Salad: Garden Salad
Entree: Baked Flounder Stuffed with Crabmeat
Dessert: Strawberry Parfait

$20 for members, $5 for students

Reservations to Rafia Bhore by Tuesday, January 12.
215-652-1973,  rafia_bhore@merck.com

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